COP30: Key climate finance and carbon market moves shaping the outlook

Key takeaways on COP30 climate finance and carbon markets include:

• Brazil officially launched the $125 billion Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) to reward forest conservation, backed by 53 countries.
• Brazil and the UK launched the Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator to cut methane and other super pollutants in 30 developing countries.
• Honduras and Suriname signed LoIs to develop Article 6.2 sovereign rainforest carbon credits in partnership with Deutsche Bank and the Coalition for Rainforest Nations.
• Indonesia and Gold Standard launched a digital MRV pilot expected to cover 800,000 tCO₂e in reductions/removals.
• Brazilian institutions revealed long-term commitments, including Petrobras and BNDES’ 25-year ProFloresta+ programme and a new IDB forest restoration guarantee.
• Gold Standard reinforced the need for digital certification tools, cost reductions and alignment with the Paris Agreement.
• Major corporate investment announced, including Inter IKEA Group’s restoration programme in the Atlantic Forest.

A new $125bn forest finance proposal

Brazil unveiled the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a proposed $125 billion global mechanism designed to reward countries that keep forests standing. The fund would be managed by the World Bank and use satellite verification to assess national-level conservation performance.

At least 20% of funding would go directly to Indigenous Peoples and local communities. In total, 53 countries have expressed support, including 34 tropical forest nations.

Brazil and Indonesia pledged $1 billion each, with Norway committing $3 billion over ten years, and additional backing from France, Portugal and the Netherlands.

Corporate climate action gathers pace

Corporate involvement continued to expand at COP30. Inter IKEA Group, together with BTG Pactual’s Timberland Investment Group, announced a restoration initiative in the Atlantic Forest under IKEA’s $108 million global carbon removal programme.

The project will restore 4,000 hectares of degraded land, combining ecological restoration with FSC-certified pine plantations, supporting both biodiversity and local employment.

Brazil and UK target methane and super pollutants

In a bid to accelerate emissions reductions beyond CO₂, Brazil and the UK launched the Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator. Backed by an initial $25 million, the programme aims to support 30 developing countries in cutting methane, nitrous oxide and HFCs.

The first cohort includes Brazil, Cambodia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nigeria and South Africa, with ambitions to mobilize up to $150 million in its first phase.

Carbon markets advance at COP30 as sovereign deals progress under Article 6.2

COP30 saw renewed momentum in international carbon trading:

• Honduras and Suriname signed a Letter of Intent with Deutsche Bank and the Coalition for Rainforest Nations to develop sovereign rainforest carbon credits under Article 6.2.

• The partnerships could set a precedent for large-scale transactions between governments and private companies, marking a step toward operationalising Article 6 markets.

In parallel, Indonesia and Gold Standard announced a digital MRV pilot involving eight developers with projects expected to deliver 800,000 tCO₂e in reductions and removals.

Brazilian institutions make long-term carbon commitments

Several major announcements came from Brazilian organisations:

• In a bid to accelerate emissions reductions beyond CO₂, Brazil and the UK launched the Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator. Backed by an initial $25 million, the programme aims to support 30 developing countries in cutting methane, nitrous oxide and HFCs.

• Petrobras and BNDES launched ProFloresta+, a 25-year programme to acquire 5 million high-integrity carbon credits from Amazon restoration projects, supported by preferential long-term financing.

• The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved its first forest restoration guarantee in the Brazilian Amazon – a $15 million instrument for the Triunfo do Xingu Environmental Protection Area.

The IDB also signed agreements to mobilise up to $1.5 billion for climate and sustainable development across Brazil’s major biomes.

Gold Standard calls for digital tools and Paris alignment

Gold Standard’s CEO highlighted the need to reduce certification costs through digitalisation and local capacity building. She stressed the importance of strengthening methodologies aligned with the Paris Agreement, while supporting both emissions reduction and removal approaches, spanning nature-based and emerging technological solutions.

Belém emerges as a milestone for global climate strategy

With new forest finance mechanisms, sovereign carbon programmes, digital MRV pilots and multibillion-dollar commitments from governments and institutions, COP30 is proving to be a pivotal moment for global climate policy.

Forest conservation, high-integrity carbon markets and inclusive development are increasingly converging as core pillars of the international climate agenda – and COP30 is helping define the path ahead.

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