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The thirtieth Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belem, Brazil, has drawn a flurry of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), with 29 pledges submitted over the past four weeks, accounting for over 45% of global emissions. NDCs are national climate action plans submitted by parties under the Paris Agreement (PA) on a five-year basis.
The latest batch of NDCs, version 3.0, includes climate ambitions and action plans through to 2035, following the initial submissions in 2015 and a second round in 2020. Among the latest submissions are Indonesia, China and Türkiye, who put forward their 3.0 versions on 27 October, 3 November and 9 November, respectively and account for 33% of global emissions between them. Fastmarkets has reviewed these NDCs and their implications on progress in global climate engagement.
As the country responsible for over a quarter of global emissions, China’s NDC was among the most awaited. The new plan includes an absolute emissions reduction target for 2035, improving on the emissions intensity of GDP metric used for 2030 in the previous release. However, China’s new target does not pledge a specific reduction value, instead aiming for 7-10% lower emissions in 2035 compared to the peak level, which the country expects to reach before 2030. Further details on the peak’s year or emission level have not been released.
China’s projected emissions based on Fastmarkets’ analysis do not align with IPCC guidance for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and only partially align with the 2°C guidance from 2053 onwards. China’s emissions consistently remain more than 5 Gt CO2e higher than 1.5°C scenario between 2026-2050.
Indonesia also published new 2035 targets, along with updated 2030 targets. Its NDC 3.0 sets more ambitious targets for 2030, at 1.35-1.49 Gt CO2e conditional and unconditional on international support, well below the previous 1.63-1.69 Gt CO2e range. However, it also aims for between 1.26-1.49 Gt CO2e in 2035, implying almost no change between 2030 and 2035. Nonetheless, as in the case of China, Indonesia demonstrated higher adherence to the NDC standardisation policies, having calculated its targets against its 2019 emissions, instead of the 2030 business as usual (BAU) projections of the NDC 2.0.
In the 24 hours leading to the start of the COP, Türkiye submitted its own NDC 3.0, with slight improvements from the previous version. Ankara now expects peak emissions by 2035, three years earlier than the previous 2038 estimate. At 643 Mt CO2e, Türkiye’s 2035 target is only 7% below the 695 Mt CO2e expected by 2030. Nonetheless, of the three countries, Türkiye appears to be the better aligned with the 1.5°C IPCC advice, given its 2053 net zero target. This is seven years before Indonesia’s net zero target and China’s carbon neutrality goal.
Our analysis shows that China, Indonesia, and Türkiye will need to reduce emissions to around 50% of projected 2030 emissions to comply with the IPCC 1.5°C guidelines. China, Indonesia, and Türkiye rely or are planning to rely on national carbon pricing systems to reach their NDC targets. International co-operation under Article 6.2 and 6.4, the latter also known as Paris Agreement Carbon Mechanism (PACM), also offers a scalable instrument to support mitigation activities.
Domestically, China is widening the scope of its ETS, launched in 2021, to include cement, steel, and aluminium industries. In Jakarta, officials have proposed a carbon tax to operate alongside its national ETS, Indonesia’s Economic Value of Carbon, or Nilai Ekonomi Karbon (NEK), which kicked off in 2023. Türkiye is lagging behind, but appears ready to introduce a two-year ETS pilot phase in 2026, after the adoption of its first Climate Law in July. To different extents, all three schemes allow or are considering allowing domestic carbon credits to support low-cost mitigation outcomes.
Internationally, the picture appears more fragmented. Our analysis shows that, out of the three countries, Indonesia is the only one actively seeking international cooperation under Article 6.2, which allows countries to exchange correspondingly adjusted credits. The country has already signed one Bilateral Agreement (BA) and three Implementing Agreements (IA) with four separate counterparts, Japan, Norway, Republic of Korea, and Singapore. This is line with Indonesia’s NDC, which is the only one of the three with a conditional target, contingent on international financial and technological support. The gap between the conditional and unconditional 2030 targets was widened from 6 Mt CO2e to 14 Mt CO2e in the NDC 3.0. The delta between the two targets for 2035 is even higher, at 23 Mt CO2e.
A different scenario unfolds when looking at international participation under Article 6.4. China emerges as the world’s leader in the number of projects and credits transitioning from the Kyoto-hosted Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to the PACM before the deadline of 31 December. The country has around 1,250 eligible projects, of which 530 have already requested transition to the new registry. These make up 35% of total eligible and transition-requesting projects.
The country also has roughly half a million eligible carbon credits, with half requesting transition to PACM. Indonesia also fares relatively well, ranking sixth worldwide, with 67 projects and 40,000 credits eligible for transition. Türkiye currently does not feature any CDM project or credit transitioning to PACM and has yet to sign agreements under Article 6.2. However, the Climate Law approved in July provides alignment with Article 6, and the creation of a national carbon registry to comply with international accounting and overseeing cooperation. This framework is poised to evolve sharply over the next 12 months, as the country prepares to host COP31.
Around 40% of the expected 197 NDCs are yet to reach the UNFCCC Secretariat, accounting for little under 30% of global emissions. As new NDCs set higher ambitions, more countries will rely on carbon pricing systems and domestic and international carbon credits. In Fastmarkets’ new Country Profiles module, we analyse over 20 selected countries to anticipate trends in national carbon pricing systems and examine current and future use of domestic and international carbon credits.
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