MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
Key takeaways:
Major copper smelters Hindalco and Aurubis outlined strategies including digital efficiency, by-product valorization, recycling and complex concentrate processing to combat deeply negative treatment charges (TCs) at the Resourcing Tomorrow conference in London on Tuesday December 2.
The copper industry needs one new major mine online every year to meet demand, but project timelines of 17-25 years mean the industry faces a supply gap it cannot close, Juan Ignacio Díaz, president and chief executive officer of the International Copper Association, said at the event.
“I honestly don’t know where we’re going to get the copper from,” Díaz said.
TCs are expected to remain at their worst levels in the first and second quarters of 2026, with limited improvement expected until the second half of the year, according to Rohit Pathak, chief executive officer of copper business at Hindalco Industries.
“The marketing businesses are always [a] cost game. I think [we are in] the first quarter [and] second quarter at the worst in the curve and then [it will be] fine,” Pathak said.
Pathak outlined four initiatives Hindalco is pursuing to address the challenging TC environment.
The company is investing heavily in digital analytics to improve process efficiency, he said. It is also working with partners to create value from by-products, having reduced waste by 95% and targeting zero-waste landfill and zero-liquid-discharge operations.
Hindalco, one of India’s largest aluminum and copper producers, is building capability to handle more complex concentrates, which command better TCs and refining charges (RC) terms in a market where standard material remains scarce.“While [clean] concentrates are tight, the market for tougher [concentrate] rates are still a little more open,” Pathak said.
The company is also investing in quality customization, using real-time data from customer plants to tailor products and charge premium prices.
Fastmarkets calculated the copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific at $(66.40) per tonne on Friday November 28, down by $1 per tonne from $(65.40) per tonne a week earlier.
The index, which represents the midpoint between smelter and trader buying levels, has been in negative territory since mid-December 2024, when it fell to $(0.70) per tonne from $1.20 per tonne a week prior.
Tore Prang, vice president of corporate communications and external affairs at Aurubis, said the company opened a new recycling facility in Richmond, Georgia, in 2025 with capacity to process 180,000 tonnes of input material annually, producing 70,000-80,000 tonnes of output.“The US has always exported copper scrap and metal scrap to China. Recently, the US administration introduced quotas for copper scrap export to China… about 25% of the material should be processed in the country,” Prang said.
The US government plans to restrict copper scrap exports starting in 2027, requiring at least 25% of high-quality copper scrap be retained for domestic use, Prang said. The US exported nearly 957,000 tonnes of copper scrap in 2024, with China historically receiving 40-50% of shipments.
The Aurubis facility is modular and can be expanded, Prang said.
Pathak said Hindalco is constructing India’s first integrated copper scrap and e-waste recycling plant in Gujarat, near its existing copper smelter complex.
The ₹2,000 crore ($240 million) first phase will process 300,000-350,000 tonnes of scrap and e-waste annually to recover approximately 50,000 tonnes of copper, with commissioning expected by the end of 2026. The full project targets 200,000 tonnes of annual copper output, he said.
Governments are increasingly recognizing copper’s strategic importance, Díaz said. The US recently designated copper as a critical mineral, which brings financial benefits and faster permitting. India has also classified copper as a critical mineral.
The European Union has designated copper as a critical raw material, while China has embedded copper into its industrial policy without formal designation, he said. “Every country has a different approach. And the commonality of them is that copper is being recognized as essential.”
Global copper mine production stood at approximately 23 million tonnes in 2024, while refined copper production reached around 27.5 million tonnes, with secondary production from scrap recycling accounting for roughly 17-18% of the total. Díaz said production needs to roughly double to meet future demand.
Díaz warned that the industry needs “one committed mine, the [size of the] largest copper mine in the world, [per year] in order to meet the demand.”
Jimena Latorre, minister of energy, mining and environment for the government of Mendoza, said the PSJ Cobre Mendocino project near the Chile border could be the first to produce copper in the province, with production possible within two years. The project has full capacity of 40,000 tonnes of fine copper per year over a 16-year lifespan.
Latorre said Mendoza has reduced permitting timelines to five months [from 18 months, according to government statements]. The Malargüe Mining District has more than 150 exploration projects, she said.
Pathak projected India’s copper consumption will grow from 1.7 million tonnes currently to 4-5 million tonnes by 2035, making it the world’s second-largest consuming region.
India is growing at 8-10% annually, driven by national grid expansion, renewable energy buildout with 300 gigawatts of renewable power planned in the next five years, air conditioning demand, electric vehicle adoption and consumer electronics manufacturing, he said.
“In the next 10 to 15 years… three-fourths of India will get built,” Pathak said.
The panel, titled “Copper at the Crossroads: Balancing Energy Transition Demand and Supply Realities,” took place at the Resourcing Tomorrow conference running December 2-4, 2025 at the Business Design Centre in London.
Interested in what’s next for the copper market? Access Fastmarkets’ copper price data, news analysis and forecasting for everything you need to know. Speak to one of our experts to find out more.