Deals lower US hot-rolled coil index; $35/cwt still seen as imminent

Though confirmed deals lowered hot-rolled coil prices in the United States on Friday November 6, the spot market may well hit $35 per hundredweight ($700 0per short ton) soon due to limited availability and rising raw material costs, according to sources.

Fastmarkets’ daily hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at $34.43 per cwt ($688.60 per ton) on Friday, down 1.1% from $34.82 per cwt on Thursday November 5 but up 0.6% from $34.21 per cwt on Monday November 2.

Fresh inputs were received in a broad range from $33.50–37 per cwt across all three sub-indices.

Heard in the market
A very limited supply of spot material remains for December with most mill lead times now stretching into January of next year. While confirmed deals lowered the daily index, most sources agreed that it would only be a matter of time before $35 per cwt pricing levels become the common denominator across the spot market.

Sources said this would be a function of several factors, chief among them very tight availability, with mills prioritizing automotive contracts above supplying service centers and pipe and tube producers.

While demand from the automotive industry has strengthened the flat-rolled steel market, the amount of capacity taken offline during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic continues to shore up current price levels, sources said.

Furthermore, modest upside pressure will be felt in the near term on the back of rising raw material costs, with the price of Chicago No. 1 busheling increasing by $10 per ton in November’s ferrous scrap trade, and imported material remaining irrelevant for the time being.

Quotes of the day
“It’s a very tight steel market right now… [Service center] inventories are very low, they’re having a hard time buying what they need,” a mill source said. “This is more of a market that’s going to be driven by availability.”

“Only concern is scrap isn’t moving up proportionally to [hot-rolled] pricing,” said a Great Lakes service center source. “This gives the mini [mills] a big advantage, and doesn’t keep them disciplined in terms of maintaining a price logic based on higher [input] costs.”

What to read next
The prices were published at 3:59 pm UK time instead of the scheduled time of 2-3 pm UK time. The following price was published late:MB-STE-0149 steel scrap heavy scrap domestic, delivered mill China, yuan/tonne  These prices are a part of the Fastmarkets scrap package. For more information or to provide feedback on the delayed publication of […]
Due to a system error, the market price for June 2 was used twice in the calculation of the weekly average for AG-FML-0008 Feathermeal, fob US Delmarva Peninsula, $/short ton, resulting in an error. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated to reflect this change. Incorrect weekly average for May 31-June 6: $185-270 per short tonCorrect weekly average […]
Discover how President Trump's tariffs impact the US fluff pulp export market, specifically targeting the EU and China.
Analysts suggest that the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" may impact clean energy and battery manufacturing in the US by altering key incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).This may disrupt supply chains, cut investment in renewable energy and raise costs for electric vehicles, home energy products and other clean technologies.
Due to the Eid -Al-Adha public holiday, which began on Thursday June 5 and will run through to Monday June 9 inclusive, these prices will be published instead on Tuesday June 10, in accordance with Fastmarkets’ policy. These prices are usually published weekly on Mondays. This change was not initially noted on Fastmarkets’ 2025 pricing […]
Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange held broadly steady in the front end of the curve on Thursday May 29, while contracts for farther delivery months faced some downward pressure.