EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEF 09/05: Stronger dollar sinks SHFE base metals prices; non-ferrous scrap facing ‘seismic shift’; murky outlook for copper market

Good morning from Metal Bulletin’s offices in Asia as we bring you the latest news and pricing stories on Wednesday May 9.

Base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were down across the board during Asian morning trading on Wednesday, dragged lower by the stronger dollar. Zinc prices, trading little changed to weaker, were the most resilient of the complex.

Check Metal Bulletin’s live futures report here

LME snapshot at 04.17am London time
Latest three-month LME Prices
  Price ($ per tonne) Change since previous session’s close ($)
Copper 6,810 -65
Aluminium 2,370 -12
Lead 2,310 -21.5
Zinc 3,089 28.5
Tin 20,990 65
Nickel 13,870 -15

SHFE snapshot at 11.33am Shanghai time
Most-traded SHFE contracts
  Price (yuan per tonne) Change since previous session’s close (yuan)
Copper (July) 51,090 -280
Aluminium (July) 14,665 -90
Zinc (July) 23,810 -5
Lead (June) 18,910 -45
Tin  (Sept) 145,540 -650
Nickel  (July) 103,850 -1,310

Global scrap trade is undergoing a period of monumental change, with drastic shifts in China’s recycling policies altering trade flows, according to the Bureau of International Recycling.

The copper industry’s currently bearish environment can be chalked up to five factors, according to one analyst, pointing to a drop in manufacturing growth from its peak at the end of 2017, increased interest rates globally, a stronger dollar, the perception of a loose market and the United States’ introduction of Section 232 steel and aluminium.

Aluminium scrap market participants in the US are shifting to the sidelines and cautiously watching how China’s suspension of its North American customs inspection division will impact US scrap prices.

Earnings at Chilean long steel and iron ore producer Compañía de Acero del Pacífico (CAP) dropped by 19.40% year on year in the first quarter of 2018, amid a reduction iron ore volumes and prices.

Chinese ferro-silicon prices were stable last week, but shortened supply and more active trading suggest an uptick in pricing ahead.

And finally, click here to view the ferro-tungsten and ammonium paratungstate (APT) transactions, bids, offers and assessments in Europe, Vietnam and China, with blue tungsten oxide (BTO) and yellow tungsten oxide (YTO) deals.

What to read next
Fastmarkets will increase the frequency of its two existing CIF China port copper scrap prices and add three new grades on Monday March 16.
Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Port of Sohar in Oman are becoming tactical workarounds for base metal exports blocked by the Strait of Hormuz closure, with cargo transiting via land-bridge to other Gulf states, such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates – though capacity constraints and elevated logistics costs limit availability, sources with direct visibility of Gulf supply chains told Fastmarkets.
The Mexican aluminium market might be strongly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with supply constraints and consequently higher premiums, market participants told Fastmarkets on Tuesday March 10.
Lundin Mining and BHP published a preliminary economic assessment on February 16 for their Vicuña joint venture, projecting average annual copper production of 395,000 tonnes over the first 25 years of operation as Argentina’s copper concentrate pipeline continues to build. PSJ Cobre Mendocino separately confirmed on February 14 that its feasibility study was under way.
Chinese lead smelters turned more bearish on the procurement of raw materials in the week to Friday February 13, amid heightened price volatility in silver, which is often contained in lead ores as an important by-product and contributor to smelter profits, sources told Fastmarkets.
Roughly 40,000 tonnes per month of copper cathode that once flowed smoothly into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through Jebel Ali had few options to reroute after the Strait of Hormuz officially closed on Monday March 2, with the only alternative entry points — Khor Fakkan and Fujairah — already straining under the weight of diverted cargo, market sources told Fastmarkets.