Fastmarkets’ soybean oil futures forecast

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US animal fats and oils markets remained under pressure on Thursday June 25, though the pace of declines began to moderate after nearly two weeks of broad-based selling driven by improving feedstock availability, incoming imports and weaker soybean oil values.
The US Department of Energy’s release of an updated model under the revised 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit framework for Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (45ZCF-GREET) on Friday June 12 provides additional clarity on how feedstock economics could evolve, improving the outlook for soybean oil and canola while largely preserving the competitiveness of waste-based feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO), tallow and distillers corn oil (DCO).
Soybean and soybean meal futures continued to ride on the coattails of the bullish National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crush report on Tuesday June 16, with market chatter that China is bidding on — or indeed may have already bought — US beans for February, giving much-lauded impetus to further increases in futures markets over the period.
Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were lower on Friday June 5 due to uncertainties around Chinese commitment to buy of US goods and a perfect storm in external and derived markets.
Fastmarkets’ weekly recap of the main movements in global cash markets.
CPO futures extended losses on Friday June 5, erasing most of the week’s gains as weakness in related oils weighed on prices, while CME soyoil futures also declined, pressured by falling crude oil, legal challenges to rising US biofuel blending mandates and profit-taking.