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Fastmarkets’ April 2026 revision to its global crude steel production forecast underscores how policy actions, geopolitical disruptions and cost pressures are reshaping the near-term steel supply outlook.
Between January and April 2026, the global crude steel production forecast for 2026 was revised down by 42.8 million tonnes, equivalent to a 2% reduction versus the January baseline.
Importantly, this downgrade does not signal a synchronized macroeconomic slowdown or a broad-based deterioration in steel demand. Instead, it reflects the materialization of three region-specific supply-side shocks in early 2026:
Source: FastmarketsThe revision, therefore, marks a reassessment of near-term supply availability rather than a shift in the global demand narrative. The sections below detail how assumptions have changed by region since January, and why these changes have translated into lower production expectations.
The January baseline was informed by late-2025 production trends and expectations of infrastructure-led demand support in 2026, implicitly assuming continued operational flexibility on the supply side.
Between January and April, this assumption was revised following policy signals formalized during the March “Two Sessions” — the annual plenary meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
While the announcement itself did not introduce explicit production targets, it reaffirmed strict prohibitions on new capacity and placed greater emphasis on the enforcement of capacity replacement rules and the accelerated retirement of obsolete assets.
Recent data already points to an emerging enforcement effect, with China’s crude steel output in January-March down by 4.6% year on year. The April downgrade, therefore, is expected to constrain effective output levels and limit upside from any recovery in demand.
The adjustment is supply-driven, rather than a response to weakening steel consumption, and primarily narrows the range of feasible production outcomes over the forecast horizon.
The January baseline assumed broadly stable operating conditions across the region, including sustained utilization rates and uninterrupted export logistics, particularly for major producers in Iran. At the time, no material physical constraints on steelmaking capacity were incorporated into the outlook.
This assumption was invalidated by the escalation of armed conflict in March 2026. The April revision incorporates confirmed damage to steelmaking assets and surrounding infrastructure, alongside severe disruption to transport and shipping corridors. These developments have resulted in the loss of effective capacity, with limited visibility on repair timelines.
Given the physical nature of the disruptions, the affected capacity is not expected to be restored within 2026, warranting a lower regional production profile in the near term.
The January baseline assumed that production in non-EU Europe would remain broadly stable. But between January and April, operating conditions deteriorated more sharply than anticipated.
In Turkey, the outlook for reconstruction demand was pushed back following a renewed seismic event in mid-March, while a combination of currency depreciation and elevated imported scrap costs led to pronounced scrap-to-steel price inversions.
At the same time, export constraints under EU safeguard measures further limited outlet flexibility. These factors materially weakened electric-arc furnace (EAF) margins, prompting widespread idling and production cuts.
In the UK, rising carbon compliance costs under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), alongside weaker-than-expected automotive demand, led producers to defer planned blast furnace restarts.
Collectively, these developments reduced effective output across the region, resulting in a sharper downward revision to production assumptions than initially envisaged in January.
The January baseline assumed broadly stable production profiles across these regions, with no major supply-side disruptions anticipated in the near term. While structural challenges such as sanctions exposure, financing constraints and soft demand conditions were acknowledged, they were not expected to materially alter 2026 output levels relative to recent trends.
Between January and April, developments in these regions were mixed but generally incremental in nature. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), ongoing sanctions-related trade finance and logistics constraints continued to weigh on exports, limiting operational flexibility but without introducing new capacity losses.
In parts of Africa, sharp currency depreciation increased the local currency cost of imported equipment and external financing, contributing to delays in project commissioning rather than outright production cuts.
In the EU, manufacturing activity weakened further amid continued destocking, particularly in the automotive supply chain. At the same time, producers largely maintained output by absorbing cost pressures, including those linked to Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) preparation and energy inputs, rather than implementing broad-based production reductions.
As a result, revisions to production assumptions in these regions remain modest. The April update reflects persistent but largely anticipated constraints.
The January baseline assumed broadly steady production across these regions, with producers expected to manage rising input and energy costs without materially altering output levels. While cost pressures were recognized, they were not anticipated to translate into significant capacity curtailments in the near term.
Between January and April, cost conditions intensified, particularly in energy‑import‑dependent economies. In Japan and South Korea, elevated electricity and energy prices further compressed steel margins, reflecting increased exposure to volatile global energy markets.
In India, higher imported energy costs combined with currency depreciation contributed to a softer near‑term manufacturing outlook, prompting a more cautious production profile.
But across these markets, producers have largely responded by absorbing margins, optimizing operations in the short term, and making pricing adjustments, rather than by implementing broad‑based production cuts.
Ambitious long‑term 400 million tonne steel capacity expansion plans, most notably in India, remain intact but are characterized by long lead times and are not expected to materially lift steel output in 2026.
In the Americas, rising energy and logistics costs linked to geopolitical disruptions have become more visible in input‑price indicators, but manufacturing activity — particularly in the US — has remained resilient, supporting stable production assumptions.
In Oceania, limited domestic steelmaking capacity and stable operating rates mean that short‑term cost volatility has had a limited impact on crude steel output expectations.
As a result, revisions across Other Asia, the Americas and Oceania remain limited. The April update reflects heightened cost pressures without a decisive transmission into lower production, leaving regional output profiles broadly intact relative to the January baseline.
The April 2026 revision confirms that recent changes to the global crude steel outlook are regionally concentrated and supply-driven, rather than the result of a synchronized global slowdown.
The headline downgrade reflects a reassessment of near-term supply feasibility in a limited number of markets, where policy enforcement, physical disruptions or margin pressures have materially altered output expectations.
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