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Fastmarkets’ April 2026 revision to its global crude steel production forecast underscores how policy actions, geopolitical disruptions and cost pressures are reshaping the near-term steel supply outlook.

China’s emergence over the past two decades has reshaped global trade. What began as rapid export-led expansion in the early 2000s has evolved into a far more strategic model: one centered on control of intermediate goods, deep integration into global supply chains, and the creation of structural dependencies across industries and regions, according to Mexico’s former ambassador to China, Jorge Guajardo.

China's Tsingshan Holding Group is in talks with potential project partners about building another aluminium smelter in North Maluku, Indonesia, sources told Fastmarkets in the week to Thursday April 16.

Copper in concentrate production from Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) fell to 61,906 tonnes in the first quarter, down by 54% from 133,120 tonnes a year earlier, with the company now evaluating local third-party concentrate purchases to advance the ramp-up of its on-site smelter, according to an April 13 production release as the market focused its attention on the impact of global sulfuric acid shortages during CESCO Week in Chile from April 13-17.

Logistics disruptions, sharply higher freight costs and limited raw materials supply are among the main impacts from the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran on the Middle East's steel market, Asam Hussain, the chief executive officer of Arabian Gulf Steel Industries (AGSI), told Fastmarkets on Wednesday April 1.

Growing uncertainty over Guinea’s bauxite export policy, alongside severe disruption to alumina supply chains caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emerged as key themes at the Fastmarkets Bauxite & Alumina Conference in Miami on March 24-25, with delegates warning of heightened price volatility and shifting trade flows.

Mitsui & Co has locked in long-term copper concentrate supply by acquiring 40% offtake rights to Argentina's Josemaria deposit, while Fortescue has completed its acquisition of Peru's Cañariaco project for approximately C$139 million ($101 million), marking the latest in a wave of offtake deals and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) while majors race to secure supply amid an increasingly constrained market and record-low treatment charges (TCs).

Roughly 40,000 tonnes per month of copper cathode that once flowed smoothly into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through Jebel Ali had few options to reroute after the Strait of Hormuz officially closed on Monday March 2, with the only alternative entry points — Khor Fakkan and Fujairah — already straining under the weight of diverted cargo, market sources told Fastmarkets.

Senior analyst Andy Farida offers reactive analysis on the impact the Middle East conflict could have on the aluminium market