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Simply put, there is too much capacity chasing too little demand.
Driven largely by massive investments in Asia, the global containerboard market is facing an overcapacity of approximately 23 million tonnes in 2026. The cartonboard market isn’t far behind, with a surplus of around 10 million tonnes.
For buyers, this “gap” between supply and demand is a critical lever. Low operating rates generally suggest a buyer’s market. However, it’s not that simple.
While overcapacity should theoretically lower prices, other factors – like high energy costs and potential mill closures – can keep floors under pricing. Understanding exactly where operating rates sit in your region helps you gauge how desperate suppliers might be for volume, allowing you to time your contracts to capture the best possible value.
Want to learn more about the trends shaping the food and beverage market? We cover three essential market takeaways and expert perspectives on the future outlook in this article.
Learn how to monitor packaging prices using cost and price indices and understand the underlying cost drivers, from material cost to labor, energy and more. Examples include cartonboard, liquid container and paper bag.