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While most of the SHFE base metals prices drifted higher following news that US President Donald Trump had agreed to postpone a latest round of tariff increases on Chinese goods until mid-October, a firmer dollar was a headwind for the complex and kept gains limited.
The most-traded November copper contract stood at 47,310 yuan ($6,646) per tonne as at 11:28 am Shanghai time, up by 20 yuan – or 0.04% – per tonne compared with Wednesday’s close of 46,290 yuan per tonne.
“The nascent thaw in US and China trade relations appears to be gathering momentum ahead of October trade talks,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at online trading services provider Oanda, said in a morning note.
“President Trump agreed to postpone the latest round of tariff hikes until mid-October as China celebrates its 70th birthday on October 1st, the early birthday present follows China’s announcement yesterday that it will exempt some US products from its tariff schedule,” Halley added.
A growing tightness of physical copper in Shanghai has boosted copper cathode premiums in the city to a nine-month high, which could in turn lend support to futures copper prices.
Fastmarkets assessed the copper grade A cathode premium, in-whs Shanghai at $70-85 per tonne on September 5, marking the premium’s highest level, basis the midpoint of the range, since November 2018. The premium had been assessed at $58-75 per tonne and $50-68 per tonne on August 5 and July 4 respectively.
“Fundamentally, we believe that copper is due to strengthen in the final months of the years because the refined market tightness is likely to become increasingly visible,” Fastmarkets research analyst Boris Mikanikrezai said.
“In the very short term, the macro situation will be the key,” Mikanikrezai added. “The excessively bearish copper speculative positioning suggests that a short-covering rally in the near term is more likely than not.”
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