LIVE FUTURES REPORT 28/03: LME base metals prices edge lower; market awaits direction from key data releases

Base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange were lower across the board during morning trading on Wednesday March 28, with copper recording the biggest decline.

The three-month copper price was down by $28 per tonne after a third straight day of deliveries into LME warehouses. On-warrant copper stocks are now their highest level since June 2013, which has contributed to the red metal’s weaker tone.

A further 8,000 tonnes of copper were delivered into LME sheds this morning, which follows deliveries of 37,575 tonnes and 35,175 tonnes on Monday and Tuesday respectively.

The rest of the complex was similarly weaker this morning due to a lack of clear direction in the market, with participants likely to be paying close attention to major data releases from the United States later today – see data section below.

“Overall it has been a much more sedate session so far today, both in terms of absolute volumes and ranges, with many traders staying away from the base metal noise for now as the random and volatile nature of the onshore sentiment and the broader macro makes the LME market a 2nd or 3rd derivative at best,” said Matt France, Marex Spectron said.

Aluminium edged $6 per tonne lower but the downside was cushioned by a fresh 35,025-tonne cancellation, with the majority of the material cancelled at warehouses in Port Klang and Rotterdam.

Meanwhile, nickel, lead and zinc prices dipped lower but were little changed from Tuesday’s 5pm close with the market consolidating recent gains.

“With prices off again this morning, the market seems to be waiting to see if earlier strength has just been a pause in the sell-off. Concerns over trade wars linger and that seems to be deterring bargain hunters from chasing prices higher,” Metal Bulletin senior analyst William Adams said.

“Overall, we remain bullish on the outlook for the global economy so we see this correction as temporary and are on the looking out for buying opportunities,” he added.

Base metals prices

  • The three-month copper price was down $28 to $6,621 per tonne. Inventories dropped a net 4,200 tonnes to 388,175 tonnes.
  • Aluminium’s three-month price was down $5.50 to $2,039 per tonne. Stocks declined 6,550 tonnes to 1,261,625 tonnes, with 35,025 tonnes freshly cancelled.
  • The three-month nickel price was most recently trading at $12,990 per tonne, a decline of $10. Stocks were down 1,164 tonnes to 322,236 tonnes.
  • Zinc’s three-month price dipped $2 to $3,273 per tonne. Inventories fell 525 tonnes to 209,550 tonnes.
  • The three-month lead price fell $10 to $2,396 per tonne. Stocks dipped 500 tonnes to 129,800 tonnes.
  • Tin’s three-month price declined $25 to $20,850 per tonne. Inventories increased 15 tonnes to 1,995 tonnes.

Currency moves and data releases

  • The dollar index increased 0.1% to 89.42.
  • In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up 0.17% to $69.65 per barrel.
  • In data today, we have CBI realized sales and GfK consumer confidence from the United Kingdom as well as a host of US data including final gross domestic product (GPD), goods trade balance, preliminary wholesale inventories, pending home sales and crude oil inventories.
  • In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Raphael Bostic is speaking.
What to read next
The global copper market has finally received the widely anticipated news that imports to the US will be tariffed from August 1. The finer details of the tariffs, including their scope, and whether key copper-exporting nations like Chile, Canada and Peru will be exempt, remain unclear.
LME copper prices took a significant hit following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a potential 50% tariff on copper imports. The uncertainty surrounding the timeline and implementation of the tariff has left market participants hesitant, with analysts noting its immediate impact on price momentum and trading activity.
Fastmarkets has launched MB-AL-0424 Aluminium P1020A premium, fob Indonesia, $/tonne on July 9 due to an expected increase in Indonesia-origin aluminium exports. MB-AL-0424 Aluminium P1020A premium, fob Indonesia, $/tonneQuality: P1020A or 99.7 % Minimum Al purity (Si 0.10% max, Fe 0.20% max) in line with LME specifications. Ingot, T-bar, sowQuantity: Min 500 tonnesLocation: FOB IndonesiaTiming: […]
To increase the transparency of our methodology, Fastmarkets clarifies that the quotation period of the MHP nickel payable indicator is the month of delivery, or the month M. Any data points Fastmarkets received otherwise will be normalized to the M month based on the monthly spreads of the prevailing exchange-traded Class-1 nickel reference price, or […]
'Probably miscalculated’ assumptions at Kakula mine force Ivanhoe to overhaul entire Kamoa-Kakula complex, explains CEO Marna Cloete.
Following an initial consultation with the market, Fastmarkets is proposing to:  The new specifications would be as follows, with amendments in italics: MB-CU-0002 Copper grade 1 cathode premium, ddp Midwest US, US cents/lb Quality: Grade A 99.9935% min copper cathode conforming to LME specifications BS EN 1978:2022 – Cu-CATH-1 or Grade 1 Electrolytic Copper Cathode ATSM B1115-10 Quantity: Min […]