METALS MORNING VIEW 20/03: Base metals prices start to edge higher after weaker start

Base metals prices are down across the board this morning, Monday March 20, with prices off an average of 0.7%, led by a 1% drop in three-month nickel prices to $10,170 per tonne, while copper prices are off 0.7% at $5,892 per tonne.

These losses come after gains averaging 1.4% on Friday March 17. Volume this morning has been average with 6,319 lots traded as of 06:45 GMT.

Precious metals prices are up an average of 0.3% this morning, with spot gold prices up 0.4% at $1,234.16 per oz, this after gains averaging 0.8% on Friday.

In Shanghai, the base metals are for the most part little changed, the exceptions are nickel where prices are up 1.7% and lead, which is up 0.5%. Copper prices are little changed at 47,950 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.3% at 47,650-47,850 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.14, meaning the arb window remains closed.

In other metals in China, May iron ore future prices are off 0.4% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel rebar prices are off 0.6%, while gold and silver prices are up 0.4%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.4% at $51.53 per barrel and the yield on US 10-year treasuries are around 2.49%.

Equities ended last week on a mixed footing with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.3%, while the Dow closed down 0.1%. While in Asia this morning equities are also mixed with the Hang Seng up 0.6%, the CSI 300 is little changed, the Kospi and the ASX200 are down 0.4%. Japan is closed for a holiday.

In FX, the dollar index continues to retreat as it has been doing since last week’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to raise interest rates. The index was recently quoted at 100.11. Conversely, major currencies are firmer with the euro at 1.0769, the sterling at 1.2408, the yen at 112.64 and the Australian dollar at 0.7728. The yuan is firmer at 6.8888 and the other emerging market currencies we follow are firmer too, especially the rand at 12.6572.

On the economic data front, German PPI came out at 0.2%, which is weaker than of late, later the Bundesbank releases its monthly report and Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann is speaking, as are FOMC member Charles Evans, UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane and US president Donald Trump – see table below for more details.

Base metals prices seem to be consolidating this morning after a generally stronger tone last week. The underlying bias seems to be to the upside but overhead selling is likely to continue to cap the upside, as such, we expect more range-trading.

With the US interest rate rise now out of the way, gold prices are managing to float higher again and the weaker dollar will be helping with that. The next focal point for gold is likely to be the French presidential election, but that is still over a month away with the first round on April 23. As such, we would look for gold prices to range trade.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

What to read next
During the extended consultation, Fastmarkets received comprehensive and wide-ranging feedback from a broad cross-section of the P1020A value chain.The majority of the market feedback received during the consultation was in support of Proposal 1, with most participants preferring its simpler, more coherent mechanism of reflecting CBAM costs than Proposal 2. Proposal 1: Reporters may apply expert […]
The London Metal Exchange has been fined $12 million by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its role in the rollercoaster nickel market saga three years ago
This is a follow-up pricing notice to yesterday’s notice about the delay. The following prices were affected by this:MB-AL-0256 Aluminium fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-CU-0338 Copper fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-PB-0064 Lead fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-NI-0093 Nickel fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-SN-0005 Tin rand fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-ZN-0072 Zinc rand […]
A second pricing notice will follow when the pricing database has been updated.  The following prices have been affected by this:MB-AL-0256 Aluminium fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-CU-0338 Copper fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-PB-0064 Lead fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-NI-0093 Nickel fixing price for LME trade, rand/tonne MB-SN-0005 Tin rand fixing price for LME trade, […]
President Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%, potentially escalating tensions in US-Canada trade relations. If implemented, this move could have significant economic consequences and may prompt retaliatory actions from Canada. The article examines the potential implications of this tariff hike and its impact on the steel and aluminium industries, as well as the broader trade dynamics between the two nations.
Fastmarkets is launching assessments of the MB-AL-0407 aluminium P1020A premium, cif Mexico, and the MB-AL-0406 aluminium 6063 extrusion billet premium, cif Mexico, on Tuesday March 11, and will also launch an assessment of the MB-AL-0408 aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, cif Mexico, on Tuesday March 25. After a consultation period, Fastmarkets is launching assessments of the three […]