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North America’s packaging industry is in the midst of major shifts. Fluctuating demand and major capacity shifts are all reshaping the containerboard and boxboard landscapes creating new challenges and exciting opportunities. Mill closures have tightened the containerboard market, while new capacity is creating oversupply in the boxboard sector.
Procurement professionals and industry leaders are navigating a landscape undergoing a significant evolution. Understanding these trends is essential for anyone seeking to optimize supply chains, control costs and maintain a competitive edge.
Want to learn more? You can access a free sample of the Fastmarkets Paper Packaging Monitor here.
Historic capacity cuts are making a major impact on the containerboard market. In 2025 alone, permanent mill closures—including 2.5 million tons of capacity removed by International Paper (IP) and Georgia-Pacific (GP)—will result in the largest annual downward adjustment the sector has seen. These closures and coming projects roughly double the reduction that followed the 2008–09 financial crisis. As a result, we expect operating rates to climb from 90–91% (2023–24 average) to 95% by early 2026, tightening market conditions and creating upward pressure for kraftliner prices and other key grades.
Meanwhile, the boxboard sector faces the opposite challenge. New facilities and expansions are fueling an oversupply, particularly in coated and solid bleached grades.
For buyers, this surplus presents an immediate window to secure cost savings and renegotiate terms before producers scale back output to restore balance. Find out how we can help.
With US containerboard capacity set to drop by nearly 3 million tons by 2027 due to mill closures and planned asset conversions, procurement teams should anticipate consistently high operating rates.
This environment will likely fuel price increases, with our projections showing US East 42-lb kraftliner prices rising $50 per ton in early 2026 and another $40 per ton in 2027, totaling an anticipated $90 per ton increase over two years.
Box shipments remain weak in the near term, with 2025 shipments projected to hit their lowest mark since 2015. While we do not anticipate a rapid recovery, a gradual upturn is forecast, with average annual shipment growth of 1.6% in 2026–27. By 2027, we project box shipments to slightly exceed 2024 figures, driven by modest population growth and possible economic stimulus measures.
Action steps for buyers:
The current surplus in the boxboard market has created a favorable window for buyers to explore new vendor partnerships and lock in cost savings. However, as producers respond to ongoing demand softness and adjust their output, these advantages may soon narrow.
We expect operating rates to stabilize as the sector balances supply and demand, making it essential for procurement teams to act quickly. Find out how we can help.
The next phase for North American paper packaging will be defined by the interplay of capacity rationalization and shifting demand. While containerboard faces the tightest conditions in years, the boxboard space offers potential near-term savings for proactive procurement teams. At the same time, macroeconomic factors—including inflation, interest rates, and a slow housing market—continue to influence demand, especially for goods-dependent packaging solutions.
Success in this evolving market requires more than tracking prices—it’s about anticipating supply shifts, acting during windows of opportunity, and keeping your procurement strategy responsive to the industry’s pace of change. Keep your team informed, stay open to new supplier relationships, and use actionable insights to support smart, confident decisions. Learn more.
For a comprehensive and data-driven look at these evolving market dynamics—including more detailed forecasts, risk scenarios, and strategic insights— download our sample North American Paper Packaging Monitor. Access deeper analysis and the latest intelligence to inform your next move in this pivotal period for the sector.
Learn how to monitor packaging prices using cost and price indices and understand the underlying cost drivers, from material cost to labor, energy and more. Examples include cartonboard, liquid container and paper bag.