RESEARCH: Key takeaways from the latest Steel Market Tracker

The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets’ team of analysts are ready to view.

Price uptrend stumbles, but expected to resume

  • As we expected, Chinese export and domestic steel prices moved upward in June, settling within the 2% range of our forecasts. Rebar prices trended downward in the second half of the month while heavy rains and floods in parts of the country meant that some construction sites had to reduce their working hours, affecting demand.
    This has resulted in a rise in rebar inventories, first among producers and by the end of the month at warehouses, weighing on the price level.
    We believe that rebar prices might slide further downward in July, but the uptrend should resume later in the year, when demand from the residential construction sector and government infrastructure investment programmes should provide support to the long steel sector through 2020.
    HRC prices in Eastern China rose by 5.7% month on month, returning to being set at a premium to rebar thanks to consistent demand from the manufacturing sector. We have downwardly revised our export HRC price forecasts for the near months amid a slowdown in the Southeast Asian market, but expect that prices will continue to rise, with manufacturing demand in China continuing to grow.
  • European steel prices declined in June, with 3.6% and 3.2% falls in HRC and rebar respectively. At the end of June, a number of European mills announced coil price increases, which began to be accepted in the spot market, confirming our view that June would represent the floor level for regional prices.
    A steady increase in manufacturing activity in the region and restarts at automotive plants should support European flat steel prices in the second half of 2020, while competition from imports should decrease amid a tightening of import safeguard measures.
  • For the United States, we have downwardly revised our forecasts after sheet prices underperformed our expectations as June progressed. The return of idled steel production capacity has outpaced the revival of demand from end-users, prompting renewed pressure on prices.
    Scrap price declines were also expected in the near term with increased flows of both prime and obsolete scrap, removing cost-push pricing support for flat steel products.
    Our view on the rebar price trend remains unchanged, because we expect to see prices reach a bottom in July and to start moving upward after that, supported by a slowly improving construction sector. Long steel demand should also be helped by federal infrastructure investment plans.

Click here to view the Steel Market Tracker in full.

If you are not a subscriber but would like see a free sample report, please click here.

What to read next
The publication of Fastmarkets’ assessment of the Southeast Asia copper premium for Tuesday March 28 was delayed due to a scheduling error.
Recycling is increasingly being considered the best way to reduce carbon emissions from metals production, and huge investment in recycling facilities has been seen in recent years, with robust merger and acquisitions activity
As the world moves toward a shared goal of net-zero emissions, Claire Patel-Campbell talks to Outokumpu’s head of group sustainability, excellence and reliability about the place of the energy-intensive and high emissions ferro-chrome industry in a greener economy
Energy has been at the top of the agenda for the ferro-chrome market over the last couple of years, as prices fluctuate and access to steady supplies becomes more uncertain
China’s hot-rolled coil steel prices increased on Tuesday March 28, with domestic trading improving from the previous week, traders told Fastmarkets
A coalition of the world’s leading aluminium market participants is set to make the supply chain more sustainable, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) said on Monday, March 27
We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
Proceed