The most liquid July CME contract was virtually unchanged on the day, at $10.48 per bushel at 1pm US Eastern Time. Contracts for delivery from September onward were down by 3-4 cents per bu on the day.
The session was marked by another turnaround in US tariff policies. The country’s federal court ruling that the Donald Trump administration does not have the authority to impose tariffs.
This influenced macroeconomic markets in the US, notably with a depreciation of the US dollar. But effects on soybean trading futures were limited, as tariffs on China were not included in the court’s ruling.
Market pressures and influence of soyoil
The soybean trading futures faced downward pressures from plummeting soyoil prices and lower crude oil futures. Corn also traded in negative territory on Thursday.
July contracts were down by 1.6% on the day by the time of publication. A such, the decline in soyoil futures lacked strong fundamentals besides weaker crude oil prices. Futures brokers also mentioned continued technical-selling pressure as an additional factor.
On the other hand, soymeal futures rose. This was underpinned by product spreading and helped cap soybean losses. The weaker US dollar also contributed to supporting soybean futures. The US Dollar Index as measured against a basket of reserve currencies down by 0.6% on the day.
Premiums at origins and export hubs
At origin, the Brazilian FOB Paranaguá paper market basis for July loading was up by 7 cents per bu to 90 cents per bu over the July CME futures contract.
A trade was concluded on the same laycan at 90 cents per bu over July futures.
The July-loading FOB Santos premium was up by 7 cents per bu to 97 cents per bu over July CME futures.
The Brazilian FOB August premium in the Paranaguá paper market hub was up by 10 cents per bu to 110 cents per bu over the August CME futures contract.
In the Santos hub, the August-loading basis was up by 10 cents per bu to 117 cents per bu over the August futures contract.
The July-loading FOB premium in Argentina was up by 3 cents per bu to 20 cents per bu over July CME futures.
The July-loading FOB premiums in the US Gulf and in the Pacific Northwest hub were unchanged. They were at 74 cents per bu and 102 cents per bu, respectively, both over July futures.
Soybean trading futures in China and physical market
In China, the world’s main destination market, soyoil and soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased slightly from the previous trading day.
The most liquid September soyoil contract increased by 0.16% to close at 7,724 yuan ($1,073) per tonne. And the corresponding soymeal contract fell by 0.03% to 2,962 yuan per tonne.
China’s daily cash soymeal sales were reported at 91,300 tonnes. These were broadly in line with volumes since the beginning of this week. But significantly lower than in the previous week.
In the physical market, several cargoes were heard purchased overnight out of South America.
One Brazilian cargo for July loading was heard to have changed hands at premiums of 140-141 cents per bu over July CME futures. And two Brazilian cargoes for August loading were heard traded at 170-176 cents per bu over the same underlying contract.
A June-July straddle was also reportedly sold at 134 cents per bu over July futures. And a cargo for loading in March was concluded at a premium of 95-98 cents per bu over March CME futures.
Another cargo of Brazilian beans for loading between August and September was rumored concluded at 185-188 cents per bu over July CME futures. And an Argentine cargo for August loading was rumored traded at 128 cents per bu over July futures.
The July soybean CFR China (Brazil) premium was assessed at 140 cents per bu over July CME futures. It was unchanged from the previous assessment and equivalent to an outright price of $438 per tonne.
The global agricultural market is fast-changing. Stay ahead with real-time data from our robust price assessments.
