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This is not new to the region. Fastmarkets’ analyst Felix Bello says there has been a significant increase in “in-country activity” to counter imports in the last few years, particularly from China, Russia and Vietnam.
The measures – which usually include anti-dumping duties (AD), countervailing duties (CVD), quotas, suspension agreements and increased tariffs – aim at allowing the domestic industry to stabilize financially and operationally.
“Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico are the most vocal [in the Latin American region] as they are among the largest producers, have the largest domestic markets in the region, and have become the target of exporters,” Bello said.
Since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, global steel demand has started to return to historic levels, but supply has remained high, according to Bello, who says it will take more time for it to adjust to the lower demand.
“In the case of China, the industry is so large that it takes a long time for the pipeline flow to be reduced,” he said.
China is the main steel exporter to Latin America and has been the target of criticism from local steelmakers because of its competitive prices, which are often below the production costs of some materials.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main ports South America was $525-550 per tonne on Friday January 3, widening upward from $525-545 per tonne the preceding assessment.
According to a researcher source from the industrial sector, the growth in trade defense lawsuits involving Chinese steel in Latin America was expected. Even so, governments were “relatively slow” to adopt AD and CVD compared to the speed at which this occurred in the previous Chinese export boom, between 2015-2016, they said.
“[This is true] to some extent because the pressure exerted by China [this time] was much greater,” the expert added.
Although Latin American countries have increased their defense measures recently, they typically have less impact on the market than those implemented by the United States and the European Union, this source said.
The measures introduced by the two economic powers against imports usually are in place for longer and include a larger list of products, which that has been praised by Latin American market participants as examples to be followed, they added.
In addition, because the investigations that precede the adoption of definitive safeguard policies typically take more than a year, the effects of such measures comes after the damage has been done and market distortions are proven, the researcher source said.
Industry participants and companies are usually the ones who initiate requests for AD or CVC investigations, Bello said. The local government reviews the requests and analyzes data of import volumes and prices from the past three years before deciding on whether to proceed with the investigation or not.“There is also consideration of changes in market conditions, industry structure, technology […] There is an in-depth review and analysis of market conditions; what was considered [necessary] supply yesterday has become excess supply today,” Bello said.
Because of the length of these procedures, market participants can expect more trade defense policies being implemented in 2025, since in 2024 several requests were made and investigations were opened, the researcher source said.
“It is reasonable to expect a considerable increase in the application of measures in 2025 and perhaps in 2026,” they added.
The country adopted a one-year tariff quota system on imports of main steel products which entered into force in June 2024.
The measure has faced criticism from domestic market participants, however, who deemed the quotas too large. They also said that Chinese exporters have been able to offset the new tariff and keep prices competitive by offering discounts, Fastmarkets heard.
The Brazilian steel sector does not want the quota policy to be revoked but asks that the parameters be updated after a one-year period, said Marco Polo de Mello Lopes, president of Brazil’s steel association Aço Brasil.
Participants also advocate for the adoption of additional measures, such as definitive anti-dumping measures, he added.
Brazilian authorities are currently conducting anti-dumping investigations on imports of non-grain-oriented (NGO) electrical steel, steel tubes, cold-rolled steel coil, hot-dipped galvanized steel and Galvalume, among other materials.
Traders and importers told Fastmarkets that they anticipate the introduction of new trade defense measures in 2025, and some of them have already taken a cautious instance.
“I think the market is very quiet, with a lot of concern on the part of my clients about possible anti-dumping measures,” said a trader source in December.
“We [advanced] our purchases because we [believe] that the anti-dumping measures will take effect in 2025. I don’t know if all [the measures] that are being requested [will be implemented], but many will,” said a Brazilian importer in mid-November.
The main concern in the Colombian market is whether the current anti-dumping tariff of 29.9% on imports of HDG and Galvalume will be extended. The mechanism was introduced in June 2024 for an initial period of six months.
Sources told Fastmarkets that local industry members were optimistic about the extension of the measure, but there has been no official statement yet.
“The measure has held back sales of imported coated materials, but the local industry has not yet adjusted its prices despite the more favorable market. They are possibly waiting for the measure to be extended before taking action,” a local trader said.
Despite pressure from local industries, the only trade defense measure for the steel sector adopted by the Chilean government in 2024 expired in September after being in force for six months and was not extended.
In mid-August, Chile’s main steelmaker, Compañía Siderúrgica Huachipato (CSH), indefinitely suspended its steel operations.
In addition to commercial challenges, CSH faced deep financial problems that forced it to close down its blast furnace, it said at the time.
US President-elect Donald Trump’s rise to the White House and his repeated calls for tariffs have fueled market chatter that more trade defense measures may be adopted by Mexico.
Trump has regularly threatened to increase and impose new tariffs on Mexican imports.
Although the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has floated the idea of retaliatory tariffs against the US.
Participants of the local steel market speculate, however, that Mexico may adopt tariffs against countries such as China as a way of strengthening ties with its largest trading partner.
“Mexico shows that it prefers integration with North America and Latin America [over China],” Geraldo Esquivel, economist editor of Estudios Economicos at El Colegio de Mexico said during Alacero Summit 2024.
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