The North American packaging market faces unparalleled challenges in 2025. Fastmarkets’ recent webinar, The State of the North American Packaging Market 2025, revealed critical insights from industry leaders.
You can access the slides for this pre-recorded webinar with insights from Fastmarkets’ Jonathan Rager, SVP Analytics, Gregory Rudder, managing editor, Pulp & Paper Week, and Derek Mahlburg, Director, North American Paper & Packaging. From declines in box demand to sustained inflationary pressures, the session provided crucial takeaways for businesses navigating an unpredictable market.
This webinar, recorded on May 7, 2025, is designed for supply chain professionals, procurement leaders and industry decision-makers looking to understand the complexities of containerboard and corrugated packaging in today’s dynamic environment.
It covered key topics, including the economic factors influencing containerboard demand, the impact of tariffs on exports and shipments and our preliminary forecast for the sector in 2025. With expert insights into market dynamics and Fastmarkets’ independent, IOSCO-compliant price analysis, attendees will gain valuable tools to anticipate market fluctuations and optimize their strategic plans.
Key takeaways on the North American packaging industry
Box volume decline
The market saw a 2.1% decline in US box volume in Q1 2025 due to weakening consumer budgets and geopolitical trade tensions. Producer efforts to adjust capacity amid supressed shipments have increased volatility across the supply chain.
Shipments fell to their lowest level since 2014 in March 2025. This decline could have been driven more by consumer sentiment than underlying weakness in the market.
Impact of tariffs on supply chain
The US-China tariffs introduced significant headwinds for North American exports, particularly corrugated packaging.
Nearly 600,000 tons of US craft liner exports to China, a historically major trade partner, have been disrupted. Producers are now redirecting materials to other regions, including Central and South America.
When President Trump introduced tariffs in 2019, the average total box shipments growth of 1.8% in 2014-18 slowed to 0.3%. Without e-commerce, corrugated market would have declined in 2019.
Inflation pressures on costs
Containerboard prices have remained volatile, with inflation contributing to shifts in operating margins and costs for labor, natural gas, and more. While commodities like oil and recycled fiber (OCC) may provide temporary relief, the broader inflationary picture remains challenging for manufacturers.
A slowdown in spending in the first quarter of 2025 was expected after a strong second half of 2024. But, the acceleration in inflation could pose a challenge as inflation has been an obstacle for goods spending since 2022.
Scenario planning for 2025
Predictions suggest a 2-4% contraction in box shipments depending on the severity of tariff impacts and economic shifts, with opportunities for capacity rationalization amongst producers.
Our baseline assumption assumption is that tariffs will lead to weaker fundamentals later in 2025. Containerboard demand, exports and production are also expected to weaken in 2025.
The experts highlighted three primary outlooks for the sector this year, all framed by economic uncertainty and geopolitical challenges.
Key recommendations for industry decision-makers
Leverage market analytics: Real-time pricing tools are essential to build scenarios and manage costs.
Invest in scenario planning: Prepare for weaker fundamentals by revisiting cost rationalization plans.
Stay up to date: Access the latest news and market analysis to make informed decisions based on the latest market movements.
Discover the full insights shared in the webinar by watching the recording and downloading the powerpoint here.
