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An unusual pricing dynamic is emerging in Ukraine’s grain market, with new-crop values trading broadly in line with – and in corn even above – old-crop levels, despite expectations of strong production and ample stocks. The factors behind this shift are explored in this article and will also be discussed further at the upcoming Euro Grain Exchange in Bucharest held April 23-24, 2026.
The new crop Ukrainian 11.5% wheat offers were currently indicated around $234 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk ports (POC) for August loading, compared with $236 per tonne offered for April-May loading, only a $2 per tonne gap.
Around the same time in March 2025, August loading 11.5% wheat was offered at $240 per tonne compared with old crop at $247 per tonne.
For feed wheat, the current crop offers were $230 per tonne FOB POC for April loading versus the new crop August at $226-228 per tonne, while at the same stage a year earlier the gap was around $12-13 per tonne between old and new crop, with April loading offered around $236 versus August loading at $223 per tonne.
A similar trend was seen in corn, where old-crop offers were $226-227 per tonne FOB for April-May, while November new-crop offers were even higher, around $230 per tonne.
On the domestic market, new-crop bids were heard at $209-210 per tonne DAP POC for November-December 2026, with trade reported around $212 per tonne DAP. Meanwhile, old-crop corn was trading at $215-216 per tonne, leaving only a very narrow spread between spot and forward deliveries.
This contrasted with last year when, at the end of March 2025, April-May FOB offers were around $241 per tonne, compared with new-crop November offers at $225 per tonne. A similar structure was seen domestically, with old-crop bids at $231 per tonne and new-crop at $207 per tonne.
There were no new crop barley price ideas seen in the market yet, with trade sources saying that they were cautious about offering new crop barley so far in advance, given the difficult experience faced by many last year amid short coverage for barley and prices moving upward throughout the marketing year.
Still, at such levels, Ukrainian prices still look relatively fair compared with Euronext exchange or wheat or corn levels in EU Black Sea region.
“This dynamic appears to be driven by expectations for premiums against futures. The new crop is currently supported by a relatively strong carry versus the old crop, reflected in the MATIF [Euronext] curve, with May at €207, September at €213.50 and December at €221.75 [per tonne]. This creates an incentive to buy the flat price, sell MATIF and remain long the basis,” a trader said.
It also came as new crop 11.5% wheat loaded from Constanta-Varna-Burgas was being offered around with €2-4 ($2.30-4.60) per tonne discount to the Euronext September contract, equivalent to around $241-243 per tonne FOB.
“The same applies to wheat and corn, with almost no spread between old and new crop,” a second trader said. “Activity is not very strong, but there are occasional bursts. Premiums around 80 cents per bushel for corn remain historically low, supporting demand but we are still among the cheapest origins. Trade is building long positions on September around €213 ($245), roughly an 80 cents per bu equivalent, with the flat price likely being hedged.”
Along with that, a tight structure reflects the fact that while market participants were not pricing a normal carry discount and harvest pressure, instead, both old crop and new crop were facing the same risk market conditions.
Exporters from Ukraine continued to face uncertainty over logistics safety. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port, energy and railway infrastructure have repeatedly disrupted operations.
As a result, buying ideas on an FOB basis for new-crop corn were still supported because sellers could not assume smoother deliveries to the transshipment facilities. The execution cost remained highly uncertain, which kept market participants from offering a wider discount than for old crop.
Fuel prices were a vital part of the issue. Ukraine was still heavily dependent on imported diesel after the destruction of domestic refining capacity, which directly affects harvest costs, and logistics rates both for truck and railway deliveries and for transshipment costs.
In a pre-war year, new-crop corn would usually trade at a clearer discount to old crop while harvest and fresh supplies put pressure on forward values.
That left the market with an almost flat structure between the two crops. FOB basis new-crop corn values were supported by continued war risks, while DAP basis values were underpinned by logistics costs issues over the inland logistics and fuel prices uncertainty.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market. Discover more.