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Even though Ukraine is expected to have a larger crop in 2025/26, corn exports are currently moving at their slowest pace in years due to logistical issues, raising questions about how long this situation will persist and what the outlook is for the second half of the season under current conditions.
That might be one of the key topics discussed at the 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗜𝗖𝗫 𝗦ummit, to be held at Dubai’s Museum of the Future on January 29, 2026.
Until that time has come, here is the summary of the current situation in the market.
Ukrainian corn exports for the period July-December 2025 reached just 5.9 million tonnes, according to the latest available operational customs statistics, just over half the 9.8 million tonnes shipped over the same period last season.
As of the latest reports, Ukrainian corn exports so far have also dipped to the slowest in seven years, given that the previous slowest pace that was seen before was in 2017/18 MY when by end of December 5.5 million tonnes were exported.
Ukraine’s railway infrastructure has been hit more than 800 times since the start of the calendar year, according to publicly available data and trade sources.
Indiscriminate attacks on civilian rail infrastructure have continued to disrupt cargo flows toward the Great Odesa ports, increasing congestion across the national network. The locomotive fleet has become a primary target alongside power supply and port facilities, reducing wagon circulation during the peak corn harvest period.
As a result, delivery times to ports have increased significantly to 10–20 days from around two to three days previously. Logistics costs have also risen because inland silos and transshipment terminals are forced to use gasoline- or diesel-powered electric generators during loading and discharging.
Moreover, several terminals were forced to completely stop their transshipment operations for several days after storage facilities were seriously damaged from frequent Russian attacks.
In some cases, even trade companies with their own terminals were pushed to cover previously booked cargoes by loading at rival terminals to fulfil contract obligations amid power shortages.
Trade sources said they are not sure how long this situation will remain, with many expecting attacks to continue through winter followed by potential relief close to March-April.
At the same time, since the start of the marketing year, the corn price has generally held steady, without any significant “harvest pressure” seen, especially on the domestic market
Price support from the beginning was coming from a delayed harvest alongside previously-booked export contracts that needed to be executed.
Until late October, Ukrainian corn was priced out of the competition at key export destinations such as Spain and Egypt, with US and Brazil origins taking their market shares.
But since October 13, corn prices worldwide have been increasing. Fastmarkets’ corn FOB Brazil price has gained $21.75 per tonne to $227.75 per tonne as of December 22, while corn FOB US Gulf has moved up by $17.75 per tonne during the same period to $213 per tonne.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ Ukraine corn FOB HIPP assessment for December 22 has only gained $4 per tonne to $218 per tonne for the first half of February loading.
This has made Ukrainian corn price competitive again into Egyptian and Spanish destinations, with trading companies with books for long shipment periods said to be switching to coverage from Ukraine. But that is still also subject to logistical availability.
For the first six months of the 2025/26 MY, the key importers of Ukrainian corn were Turkey with 1.5 million tonnes, followed by Italy with 1.3 million tonnes, the Netherlands with 430,800 tonnes and Spain at 397,500 tonnes.
Egypt, which used to be one of the key importers, has only imported 248,900 tonnes for the July- December 2025 period.
While trading houses are now partially switching to cover from Ukraine, end buyer demand for now looks rather subdued.
In Spain, a few factors are affecting demand for feed grains. A spike in swine fever among wild boars was reported a few weeks ago. Although it has likely not yet spread to farms, concern remains in the market. This has made buyers cautious and put pressure on the local grain price market.
Grain prices were said to be weighed down by uncertainty over ASF and future feed demand, according to the Spain-based Mercolleida analytical report. It also said that despite heavy arrivals expected at Tarragona, port prices are easing only gradually as buyers remain on the sidelines and lower offers fail to trigger demand, with corn showing the clearest imbalance, with sellers present but few buyers.
Along with that, trade sources also mentioned that the ports have been loaded with soybean meal, after market participants stocked up on stock ahead of the possible implementation of new rules under the EU Deforestation regulation (EUDR).
“Most feedmillers have secured their protein needs for the first quarter of the year because of uncertainty about EUDR enforcement [which was actually postponed for a year at the last minute],” a trader source said.
Together with buyers generally being covered and good domestic production, these factors have limited demand in Spain.
Moreover, Turkey, having been an active buyer during July-September, has retreated amid a good domestic crop harvest. And comparatively higher prices for Ukrainian corn into Turkey, of $240-241 per tonne CIF Marmara for Handy-sized vessel, have lessened its attractiveness against Russian corn offers for Coaster-vessels at $235 per tonne.
“Turkish demand is weak, Russian coasters are cheaper today, while local prices are low too. I am not expecting a huge demand till February-March,” a trader said.
Egypt has been buying big amounts of Brazil corn as the price have been competitive, with 2.7 million tonnes imported during July -September period – above the five years average amount imported during that time at 2.5 million tonnes, where 63% or 1.7 million tonnes were coming from Brazil.
Egypt’s average corn import for the last five years stands at 8.57 million tonnes, based on the official custom’s data.
Meanwhile, local trade sources said demand is still weak, with local prices below those for import replacement. Still there was some “technical jump” in prices recently, which spurred some buying activity, but that is not expected to remain for long as for now there is no demand to support it.
On the supply side, 2025/26 MY Ukraine is expected to harvest a decent crop of corn, with general estimations in the market in range 30-32 million tonnes, out of which 25.4 million tonnes or equivalent on 83% of the planned fields are harvested as of December 11.
That means the crop is already close to last year’s total 26.86 million tonnes, but likely some of the corn will stay for winter in the fields.
Given the export potential for 2025/26 stands at around 25 million tonnes, and less corn is exported during the usual peak months of November-February, more corn will remain available for the March-June period, till new crop grains start to come into the market.
Some trade sources expect that means Ukrainian corn prices may fall in March or April as seller try to find buyers.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.