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Missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s oilseed processing industry have increased significantly since last autumn, with another intensified wave of strikes reported since April, leading to direct product losses, infrastructure damage and additional costs for companies trying to fulfill export contracts.
Market sources said that in some cases such incidents are no longer treated by counterparties as force majeure, forcing crushers and exporters to re-enter the market to secure replacement oil volumes for previously agreed shipments.
The largest losses are being recorded in the port areas of Ukraine’s Odesa region, although significant damage has also been reported at plants in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and several other regions. Storage tanks and rail tankers carrying oil have been the most frequent targets, while production facilities themselves have generally suffered less damage. Still, some plants have temporarily suspended operations or reduced crush rates following attacks.
According to local analysts at APK-Inform, missile and drone attacks are unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine’s overall sunflower oil output in the current season. Despite substantial local losses for individual companies, the market remains heavily undersupplied with raw materials relative to installed processing capacity, meaning that reduced operations at one plant are often offset by higher utilization rates elsewhere.
Ukraine’s sunflower seed crushing capacity at the start of the 2025/26 marketing year was estimated at around 23 million tonnes per year. Additional soybean crushing capacity is estimated at roughly 5.4 million tonnes per year (tpy), while rapeseed processing capacity is estimated at around 4.8 million tpy.
At the same time, Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed crop is estimated at around 10.8 million tonnes, the lowest level in 11 years. Even when including an estimated soybean crop of around 5.5 million tonnes and rapeseed production of roughly 3.2 million tonnes, total oilseed supplies remain well below existing processing capacity.
Market participants also noted that the construction of new crushing plants in Ukraine has slowed significantly in recent years. Several projects announced previously, mainly in western regions of the country, are currently on hold.
But wartime risks continue to have a much stronger effect on export flows because attacks largely target port infrastructure and oil volumes either stored at ports or moving toward them. Market participants said export shipments slowed in some months due to strikes, although transshipment capacity has helped accelerate flows during periods of reduced attacks.
Accurately estimating sunflower oil losses in the 2025/26 season remains difficult because most companies do not disclose spill volumes or provide official comments for security reasons. In many cases, the market relies only on unofficial reports regarding damaged storage tanks at plants, rail tankers hit during loading operations or oil spillages directly at port terminals.
According to estimates from local analysts at APK-Inform, cumulative losses of sunflower oil intended for export markets in the 2025/26 season could reach around 90,000-100,000 tonnes, equivalent to roughly 2% of forecast production. By comparison, annual sunflower oil losses in Ukraine before the war typically did not exceed 10,000-15,000 tonnes.
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