Uncertainty lingers over antimony exports following US-China truce

Key takeaways:

• China has made no new announcement on antimony exports. The status remained unchanged by Thursday November 6. Any resumption to the US would significantly move the market.
• Market views are split and policy remains unclear. Some expect negotiations or a quota system while others see no change. Sentiment ranges from optimistic to pessimistic.
• Tighter controls and inspections have stalled shipments and business. Containers have been held for months with only occasional clearances. Many exporters have suspended overseas sales.

Antimony exports: Status unchanged by Thursday, November 6

By Thursday November 6, China had made no official announcement regarding antimony exports. The antimony export situation was unchanged, Fastmarkets understands.

Some market participants believed that the two sides may still be negotiating details. Views in the market were mixed, ranging from optimism to pessimism. Speculation spanned macro and microeconomic consequences and even the possibility of an export quota system instead of a full ban.

Any resumption of Chinese antimony exports to the US would have a significant effect on the market and was being watched closely.

Market sentiment and speculation

“It’s hard to guess. Nothing is certain until something is put in writing,” one market participant told Fastmarkets.

A second market participant expected no change in China’s antimony policy. “People are worried about Chinese antimony exports, but what we’re hearing is that nothing will change,” this source said. “Only the recent rare earth restrictions will be rolled back.”

“Nothing has changed so far,” a third market participant said. They also noted that several of its containers have been held at port for months.

A fourth market participant reported that one container of antimony trioxide, held at port since March, has now been cleared and was en route to South Korea.

“There is no clear policy. We are waiting for it,” a fifth market participant said. They added that the market was hoping for some easing of export controls. Or at least the introduction of a quota system.

The meeting marked the first face-to-face talks between Trump and Xi since 2019.

Policy timeline and implications for antimony exports

China, the global leading producer of antimony, announced in August 2024 that it would implement export controls on antimony from September 15 that year. Similar to 2023’s measures on gallium and germanium, exporters must provide proof of end-users and end use, along with applying for export licenses.

In December 2024, China announced further export restrictions on antimony, gallium, germanium and certain types of graphite used in electric vehicle batteries destined for the US. This was one day after the White House imposed new curbs on sales of high-bandwidth memory chips to China.

In early May 2025, China launched a coordinated crackdown on the illegal export of strategic minerals including antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten and rare earth elements.

Since then, customs inspections have intensified. Even materials such as antimony masterbatches, previously not restricted, have been stopped at ports for review. Most antimony exporters have suspended overseas business as a result.

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