What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?
April’s ferrous scrap market outlook is weighed down by subdued expectations across the board. The Trend Indicator slipped to 47.1, placing sentiment marginally below neutral and pointing to a softening in prices. The forecasted month-on-month scrap price change sits at negative 4.4%, diverging sharply from March’s increase. Consensus among respondents remains tight at just 53%, suggesting a low degree of agreement among market participants.
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for April or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
US scrap market sentiment softens
Weaker demand conditions are again the predominant narrative. The buyer-side Trend Indicator fell to 38.9, reflecting a clear bearish stance, while sellers held closer to neutral at 46.2.
Brokers, however, were slightly more optimistic with a reading of 56.3—perhaps indicating greater variability in regional market conditions or a belief in better support from export flows.
Tariffs are the wildcard.
Survey participant
Inventory levels indicate balanced supply conditions
Inventory levels remain close to average at 47.3, indicating balanced supply conditions and no acute overstocking or shortage pressures. The prevailing market driver this month is “Lower demand,” aligning with broad-based survey comments citing slowing mill orders, tariff-related confusion, and uncertainty weighing on commitment levels.
