US scrap trends outlook: July 2025

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our July survey

Market predicts modest increase amid stability in fundamentals

Following a flat performance in June, the US ferrous scrap market anticipates a moderate price uptick of 2.8% in July, according to the latest survey data. The Trend Indicator rose slightly to 55.6, signaling mildly bullish expectations. Sub-indexes across the market—buyers (54.41), brokers (56.3), and sellers (56.3)—reflect a relatively unified sentiment.

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for June or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

Market stability prevails amid equilibrium inventory levels and consensus alignment

Inventory levels remain near the equilibrium mark at 49.8, and the predominant market driver this month is “All Unchanged,” pointing to a broadly stable environment. The consensus reading of 69% suggests stronger-than-usual alignment among respondents, reinforcing the lack of major shifts in market dynamics.

Inventory levels remain near the equilibrium mark at 49.8

Survey participant

Seasonal steadiness and cautious optimism define July market outlook

Qualitative responses emphasize seasonal steadiness and balanced flows in key regions, with many noting that scrap and demand are moving in tandem. Geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties persist but are not currently exerting a significant directional pull on the market.

The outlook for July is one of cautious optimism. While no strong push from supply or demand is evident, the expectation of a small price increase suggests some resilience in pricing as the market settles into summer.

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This price is a part of the Fastmarkets scrap package. For more information on our North America Ferrous Scrap methodology and specifications please click here. To get in touch about access to this price assessment, please contact customer.success@fastmarkets.com.
This consultation was done as an adhoc methodology review process, aiming to better reflect the physical market under indexation, considering its reduced liquidity linked to the combination of seasonal demand patterns and the implementation of cross-border import tariffs between the US and China. No feedback was received during the consultation period and therefore Fastmarkets will […]
The prices are: The changes were made in order to ensure that the liquidity and price volatility in these markets is adequately captured. The changes were welcomed by market participants seeking more granular coverage and increased transparency. In the UK, the decline of domestic steelmaking means the scrap market is dominated by exports. Exporters told Fastmarkets that […]