What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?
The ferrous scrap market is positioned for a significant price increase in March, driven primarily by strong demand and supply shortages. The Trend Indicator surged to 79.9, marking one of the strongest bullish signals since 2022. This translates to a 7.9% forecasted month-on-month price increase, reflecting industry-wide expectations of constrained availability.
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for March or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
Supply constraints drive strong price expectations
Market participants across all segments align with this outlook. Sellers lead with a Trend Indicator of 77.2, while brokers are even more optimistic at 87.5, suggesting that they foresee tightening supplies fueling aggressive pricing.
Buyers, though slightly more cautious at 75, still acknowledge the upward momentum.
Mills have started to buy March tons already. Shredders were affected because of the snow and cold temperatures.
Survey participant
Stockpiles are not excessive but also not critically low
Inventory levels remain near neutral at 52.1, indicating that stockpiles are not excessive but also not critically low. However, the dominant market driver–lower supply–suggests that collection challenges and limited scrap flows are underpinning the bullish sentiment.
March’s market appears set for another firm increase. Market participants anticipate continued strength as mills seek to secure tonnage in a constrained supply environment, with sentiment leaning towards sustained higher pricing through the near term.
