US scrap trends outlook: May 2025

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our May survey

Scrap prices under pressure as demand slows further

The ferrous scrap market outlook for May 2025 points to another month of significant downside pressure, driven primarily by weakening demand conditions.

The Trend Indicator has dropped steeply to 25.4 – well below the 35-point threshold indicating strong bearish sentiment – suggesting a high likelihood of falling prices. Forecast models project a month-on-month scrap price decrease of 9.5%, following a 6.2% decline in April.

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for May or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

US scrap market sees a downward trend

This bearish shift is broadly agreed upon, as indicated by a consensus score of 60%, suggesting participants are mostly aligned on market direction.

Among market participants, buyers are the most optimistic with a Trend Indicator of 31.7, while brokers and sellers reported even lower figures at 20.8 and 23.6 respectively, reinforcing the widespread expectation of price erosion.

Among market participants, buyers are the most optimistic with a Trend Indicator of 31.7.

Survey participant

Inventory levels steady, offering limited pricing buffer

Inventory levels are near neutral at 47.5, indicating that stockpiles are roughly in line with typical monthly averages and unlikely to provide any significant buffer against downward pricing pressure.

What to read next
Discover how the US-Japan trade deal is reshaping the auto and steel industries, with insights on tariffs, production shifts, and market competition
Market reactions to the soon-to-be-implemented US copper tariff are driving short-term volatility and supply imbalances while fuelling long-term efforts to expand domestic production, recycling and infrastructure.
Fastmarkets’ SBQ price assessments and monthly forecast provide much-needed clarity and a benchmark for buyers in the steel industry to use for planning and negotiation.
American Chambers of Commerce (Amcham) across Latin America are calling for urgent negotiations to prevent the escalation of trade tensions between their countries and the US, following the announcement of sweeping 50% tariffs by President Donald Trump.
Fastmarkets has launched a MB-STE-0935 Steel reinforcing bar (rebar), differential to shredded auto scrap Chicago, fob mill US, $/gross ton to complement its existing suite of steelmaking raw materials to finished product differentials on Wednesday July 23. This strategic launch is designed to offer the market a single reference price denoting the differential between steel […]
India’s ferrous scrap imports have rebounded in early 2025 but remain vulnerable due to competitive domestic DRI prices and shifting sourcing strategies by steelmakers. While near-term demand is subdued, long-term prospects depend on evolving supply chains and policy decisions.