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The US ferrous scrap market appears to be entering a holding pattern for November. After a 3.6% price decline in October, the Outlook Trend Indicator has edged up to 52.3, indicating slight bullishness, though the increase is modest and suggests minimal pricing momentum. The Outlook’s forecast model points to a small 0.7% price rise month-on-month.
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for November or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
Consensus around the November forecast is notably high at 68%, well above the long-term average of 61%, reflecting broad convergence in market views. Despite that, division is visible across market participants: sellers are the most optimistic with a 58.3 reading, while buyers sit below neutral at 48.7, and brokers remain flat at 50.
Sellers are the most optimistic with a 58.3 reading, while buyers sit below neutral at 48.7 Survey participant
Sellers are the most optimistic with a 58.3 reading, while buyers sit below neutral at 48.7
Survey participant
Inventories are reported near average levels, with a 49.6 reading, suggesting no urgent supply constraints. The dominant market view is “All Unchanged” – a sentiment echoed in open-ended responses, with several pointing to weak demand, stable export flows, and mills largely covered through year-end.
Muted supply-side risks and absent major demand drivers ahead of the holidays further support the outlook for flat pricing. Seasonal considerations, such as winter weather impacts and mill order books already filled, may shape December’s tone more significantly.
With no clear catalyst on the horizon, market participants appear resigned to sideways trading conditions for now.