US scrap trends outlook: October 2024

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our October survey

What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?

  • The market views are shaped by hesitation and uncertainty, driven by the upcoming election
  • The US ferrous scrap trend indicator stood flat at 49.5 in October
  • Scrap prices are expected to remain stable with only a 0.5% drop
  • The market consensus diverged further, with the more positive sellers at 54.7, the neutral brokers at 50.0 and the more pessimistic buyers at 43.7

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for October or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

US ferrous scrap market stagnates in October

October’s ferrous scrap market is characterized by a broad sense of hesitation, with the trend indicator standing at 49.5, indicating an expected flat performance. Market sentiment is cautious, largely driven by the approaching election, with survey participants pointing to uncertainty as the primary factor influencing demand. 

Not much to affect change and people waiting on election results.

Survey participant

Divergence in market consensus rose

The forecasted scrap price decline of 0.5% showed a lack of significant price movement. Diverging perspectives across market sides are noticeable, with brokers maintaining a neutral view at 50.0, while buyers remain slightly more pessimistic at 43.7. Sellers, however, expect a slightly more positive trend with a reading of 54.7.

Market ‘on hold’ amid election uncertainty

Inventory levels are notably low, sitting at 46.7, but the overall sentiment is that “all unchanged” conditions prevail. Demand and supply dynamics seem balanced, with no major disruptions anticipated. The overarching mood remains one of “wait and see,” as the market appears to be in a holding pattern until post-election clarity arrives. “

What to read next
Mexico’s production and consumption of long steel fell year-on-year in May due to weakness in the country's construction sector, but posted a month on month gain, according to the latest data from the Mexican steel chamber, CANACERO.
Despite the current headwinds, strategic partnerships and continued investment in the right areas, coupled with the underlying strong long-term demand fundamentals, will pave the way for success for lithium producers, according to the participants of the executive panel during the Fastmarkets Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials Conference, which took place from June 23-26 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The US and Europe must adopt long-term, consistent policies and should learn lessons from China, according to lithium industry experts speaking at Fastmarkets’ Lithium Supply and Battery Raw Materials Conference in Las Vegas, US, over June 22-25.
This price is a part of the Fastmarkets scrap package. For more information on our North America Ferrous Scrap methodology and specifications please click here. To get in touch about access to this price assessment, please contact customer.success@fastmarkets.com.
This consultation was done as an adhoc methodology review process, aiming to better reflect the physical market under indexation, considering its reduced liquidity linked to the combination of seasonal demand patterns and the implementation of cross-border import tariffs between the US and China. No feedback was received during the consultation period and therefore Fastmarkets will […]
Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our July survey.