US steel market divided on impact of Nucor’s sheet price hike

Participants in the US steel market were divided on the impact of a price increase from Nucor’s sheet mill group this week, with some suggesting hot-rolled coil prices could fall further while others were optimistic that announcement could halt - or even reverse — the recent downtrend

Rather than reverse the trend of declining hot band prices, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based steelmaker’s $50-per-short-ton ($2.50-per-hundredweight) increase – its first such announcement since March 16 – could help the market find a floor, some sources said.

According to a buyer source, Nucor’s new target price after the increase is reportedly $850 per ton ($42.50 per cwt).

“We are hovering around a [price] bottom, and the Nucor increase probably helps solidify that for buyers,” the buyer told Fastmarkets.

A distributor source agreed, saying: “We have received the information on Nucor, and let’s hope the others follow.”

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at $39.58 per cwt ($791.60 per ton) on Tuesday August 9, down by 4.51% from $41.45 per cwt a week earlier and by 47.68% from a recent high of $75.65 per cwt on April 8.

Even if a price floor is found around $40 per cwt, which is roughly half the 2021 index average of $80.62 per cwt, that level is historically high. Between 2010 and 2020, the lowest yearly average was $22.54 per cwt in 2015 and the highest was $41.37 per cwt in 2018.

Still, other market participants seemed were unsure about the possibility of a price uptrend, citing a less-than-robust demand outlook.

“I’m not sure how much traction this increase will get considering that supply dynamics don’t really support it,” a second distributor said.

“I think this is a typical move by a mill in a falling market to try and slow the pace of decline or stop it altogether,” the second distributor added. “I’m curious to see if other mills follow up on Nucor’s announcement and if lead times increase as a result.”

HRC lead times stood at three to four weeks for most of the summer and have recently extended to about four weeks, according to sources.

“With busheling dropping $70 per [gross] ton, the only thing right now on the horizon in my opinion that could solidify increases is a possible strike at one or more… mills as a result of the union negotiations,” the second distributor continued.

A third distributor also was skeptical about a potential rebound.

What to read next
Key talking points from the 75th anniversary event of European steel distributors’ association Eurometal, held July 2-3 in Luxembourg and attended by Fastmarkets.
Mexico’s production and consumption of long steel fell year-on-year in May due to weakness in the country's construction sector, but posted a month on month gain, according to the latest data from the Mexican steel chamber, CANACERO.
Charcoal-based pig iron can potentially support decarbonization strategies in the EU, despite not being widely used in the region, delegates were told at Fastmarkets' International Iron Ore & Green Steel Summit, held June 17-19 in Barcelona.
Following a month-long consultation period which took place between May 26-June 23, Fastmarkets will launch the weekly price assessment to better reflect the Indonesian coke market, given that the country has been a key exporter of coke worldwide since 2023. The price specifications are as follows: MB-COA-0009 Coke 65/63% CSR, fob IndonesiaQuality: 65/63% CSR, 12.5% max Ash, 0.65% max […]
The first publication of the Monterrey HRC and rebar assessments is scheduled for Thursday June 26. The price assessments will be published weekly, every Thursday, 2-3pm (Eastern Time). The specifications are as follows: MB-STE-0934 Steel hot-rolled coil index, delivered Monterrey, Mexico, peso per tonneQuality: SAE 1006-1008 commercial steel and corresponding grades, 48 inches wide, caliber 8-14Quantity: Min 50 […]
The automotive industry's embrace of the pioneering steelmaking technology of tailored welded blanks to make hot stamped door rings has reached a break-out point with annual output volumes expected to double over the next five years