Verra delays crucial VM0048 baselines and tight liquidity provides further support to Katingan prices

Carbon registry Verra announced on Friday May 23 a delay in the release of the final deforestation risk maps required under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) methodology VM0048. The registry said that the delay is intended to ensure the data meets Verra’s standards for high quality and to enhance transparency throughout the data development process.

Under the updated system, only provisional, lower-resolution open-access data will be published initially, while VMD0055-compliant maps – required for project registration under VM0048 – will follow two to three months later, pending third-party review. A new webpage will track the progress of these maps and provide stakeholders with a three-week feedback window following the release of each provisional version.

The changes respond to concerns raised by project developers that earlier versions of the maps set overly conservative baselines – particularly in indigenous and protected areas – by underestimating additionality. In response, Verra has revised draft maps for regions such as Pará and Mato Grosso in Brazil.

But none of the 13 originally planned regional maps have yet been released in their final form. The first provisional maps, covering three Brazilian states, were published in December 2024, and final maps were initially expected in early 2025. Updated timelines now indicate that maps for other key jurisdictions, including Peru, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Guatemala, will not be published until the second half of 2025 at the earliest.

These delays have contributed to broader frustration among REDD+ project developers, who face bottlenecks across registration, validation and verification processes. The slower pace has also curbed new credit issuance and market activity, particularly as participants await the arrival of VM0048 credits that may eventually qualify for the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s (ICVCM) Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label, sources said.

Despite the sluggish pace of registration, retirements remained strong during the week to Wednesday May 28. A total of 171,287 tCO2e of REDD+ credits were retired, bringing the cumulative total for May to 2.1 million tCO2e, already surpassing April’s figure of 1.91 million tCO2e with still a few days remaining in the month.

Demand for credits from the Katingan project (VCS 1477) was particularly strong during the week, with retirements from the project making up nearly 60% of the total REDD+ credit volume retired, including a notable retirement of 14,700 tCO2e of Katingan 2020 vintage credits by Temasek Holdings. Other significant transactions featured the retirement of 60,000 tCO2e of 2017 vintage Southern Cardamom (VCS 1748) credits by unnamed beneficiaries, 12,679 tCO2e of 2011 vintage Cikel Brazilian REDD (VCS 832) credits by Ocyan SA, 15,033 tCO2e of 2015 vintage Keo Seima (VCS 1650) credits, and 11,655 tCO2e of 2017 vintage credits from The Russas project (VCS 1112), retired by Anthesis on behalf of Arvid Nordquist.

In the secondary market, Katingan credits continued to draw firm demand, with prices strengthening across several vintages. Bids for 2020 vintage credits rose to $6.75 per tCO2e, up by 25 cents per tCO2e from the previous week, while offers climbed to $7.25 per tCO2e, also up by 25 cents per tCO2e on the week. For comparison, the same project-vintage pair was bid-offered at $4.50-4.75 per tCO2e at the start of 2024.

The 2019 vintage was bid at $6.15 per tCO2e and offered at $7.00 per tCO2e, with volumes of 2,000 tCO2e and 25,000 tCO2e respectively. The 2018 vintage was offered at $6.40 per tCO2e for 25,000 tCO2e, while the 2017 vintage was bid at $5.90 and offered at $6.40 per tCO2e, each with volumes of 10,000 tCO2e. The tightening of available Katingan supply is lending support to prices, particularly given the absence of new issuances. The project has not issued any new vintages since 2022, following a moratorium on credit issuance imposed by the Indonesian government.

Outside of Katingan, Envira Amazonia (VCS 1382) had offers for 2020 and 2021 vintages at $6.25 per tCO2e and $6.50 per tCO2e respectively, with volumes of 4,000 tCO2e and 23,000 tCO2e. Keo Seima (VCS 1650) credits of 2021 vintage were offered at $5.80 per tCO2e with volumes of 25,000 tCO2e, while 2019 vintage credits from the Condoto REDD+ project (VCS 2723) were offered at $6.30 per tCO2e for 18,700 tCO2e.

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