Margins on the line

CBAM is turning carbon into a material cost in every tonne of steel and aluminium entering the EU. This report sets out CBAM insights on where liabilities concentrate across key routes and products and how that will reshape competitiveness from 2026 onward.

The report examines:
• Expected EUA price paths and how they translate into CBAM certificate costs
• Product and route-level exposure across major exporting regions
• How CBAM could shift sourcing patterns, trade flows and market shares
• Exposure differences by production route, origin and carbon intensity
• Implications for contracting, procurement and risk management under a carbon cost regime

The analysis gives commercial, procurement and finance leaders a quantified view of CBAM exposure across steel and aluminium supply chains. It offers a practical basis to assess liabilities, compare risk by route and origin and plan against a new carbon cost baseline.

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