Life After Free Allowances: Carbon Costs and Trade in EU Steel and Aluminium

Free allowances are phasing out and effective exposure is rising. As that shift accelerates, carbon stops behaving like a compliance add-on and starts behaving like a unit cost that changes pricing, contracting, and sourcing decisions.

Join our first flagship Scenario Labs webinar in the series, where we translate EU ETS scenarios into CBAM certificate pricing and explain why steel and aluminium are showing different pass-through behavior. We unpack the trade-flow implications so you can plan for margin risk and competitiveness through 2035.

What you will take away:

• A scenario-led view of how EU ETS changes can move EUA price trajectories through 2035

• A practical translation of EUA prices into CBAM certificate pricing and import liabilities

• A steel vs aluminium comparison showing where pass-through is diverging and why

• The trade-flow implications – who stands to win and lose?