Access our on demand recording: Scenario Labs Episode 1 – Life After Free Allowances: Carbon Costs and Trade in EU Steel and Aluminium

Free allowances are phasing out and effective exposure is rising. As that shift accelerates, carbon stops behaving like a compliance add-on and starts behaving like a unit cost that changes pricing, contracting, and sourcing decisions.

Watch the recording of our first flagship Scenario Labs webinar in the series, where we translate EU ETS scenarios into CBAM certificate pricing and explain why steel and aluminium are showing different pass-through behavior. We unpack the trade-flow implications so you can plan for margin risk and competitiveness through 2035.

What you will take away from Scenario Labs Episode 1:

• How the free allocation phase-out creates a 10x surge in effective carbon costs for EU steel and aluminium producers, and why waiting until 2028–29 to act means missing the window

• How CBAM costs are calculated, why they vary by up to 6x across source countries, and what that means for where you source from

• Why only a quarter to a third of CBAM costs can be passed through to buyers, and who absorbs the rest

• How steel and aluminium markets are already responding differently: the structural shift to DDP pricing in steel versus gradual CBAM absorption in aluminium premiums

• Industry perspectives from Tata Steel, Norsk Hydro, Volvo, and Redshaw Advisors on derivatives loopholes, verification risk, and the policy stability debate