Veg oils price commentary: CPO slips, soyoil drops

Stay updated with our latest veg oils price commentary. Crude palm oil (CPO) futures traded in both directions on Friday October 3 before halting its two-day positive streak to end lower amid pre-weekend positioning and as palm tracked similar movements recorded in related soybean oil futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Key takeaways:

  • Malaysia CPO futures dipped intraday but ended the week up 1.05%, supported by expectations of lower September production/stocks and stronger related veg oils.
  • Cash markets showed India largely covered for October, with Indonesia CPO/olein offers competitive; EU rapeseed oil eased while sunflower oil firmed in EU and Black Sea on Indian/EU demand.
  • CME soyoil softened amid US policy uncertainty on biofuels (RFS/RVOs), while soymeal gained; basis moves in South America reflected mixed premiums/discounts across Argentina and Brazil.

Veg oils price commentary: Malaysia CPO futures snapshot

The most-active December CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slipped by 0.09% to 4,442 ringgit ($1,056) per tonne, reversing direction from the morning when it closed 2 ringgit higher at 4,448 ringgit per tonne and touched the intraday high of 4,488 ringgit per tonne.

CPO was tracking overnight increases in CME soybean oil futures, which remained positive at the start of Asia trading hours before edging lower into negative territory later in the day.

On a weekly basis, the most-active third-month CPO futures contract rose by 1.05% from 4,396 ringgit per tonne on September 26, breaking a three-week losing streak amid strength in related vegoils, export optimism and ideas of lower stocks.

Losses in CPO futures on Friday were also capped by expectations of lower production and stocks in September, with newswire polls showing a 3-4% decline in Malaysia’s CPO output from August and stocks falling by around 2-2.5%.

Official data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is due on October 10.

Veg oils price commentary: India cash market and offers

In the cash market, discussions in India were limited, with buyers mostly covered for October and soybean oil offers more competitive against palm for November and December shipment. Offers for October-shipment CPO to India were at $1,150 per tonne CFR west coast India (WCI). And those for November cargoes were at $1,160 per tonne CFR WCI and December offers were at $1,165-1,170 per tonne CFR WCI.

CPO offers out of Indonesia were heard around $1,127.50 per tonne FOB Indonesia for October shipment, while discussions for November volumes were heard at $1,125.00-1,137.50 per tonne FOB Indonesia earlier in the day.

Offers for olein were also heard at $1,082.50-1,085.00 per tonne FOB Indonesia for October shipment. November offers were at $1,090-1,095 per tonne FOB Indonesia.

Veg oils price commentary: China olein trades during golden week

On Thursday October 2, around 5-6 vessels of olein were reported traded to China for shipment in October-November in the range of $1,100-1,106 per tonne CFR South China. The entire volume was bought by the same buyer, sources told Fastmarkets. The purchase was considered somewhat surprising given the ongoing Golden Week holiday in China.

Americas soyoil and macro drivers

In the Americas, CME soyoil futures traded with losses, amid concerns that the US government shutdown could delay a decision on biofuels regulation, while product spreading added a negative weight on prices. Stronger crude oil limited part of the bearish tone.

The most-liquid December CME soyoil contract went down by 0.36% on the day to 50.26 cents per lb at 1pm US Eastern time.

The US government shutdown remained in focus on Friday. Market participants assessed the risk of a potential delay in a final decision on biofuels volume obligations under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), since reduced employee activity could slow the rulemaking process.

Biofuels groups and farmers are waiting for rules on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) and reallocations for exempted refineries, which could drastically impact the demand for soyoil in 2026.

Crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows in the session, as the market previously priced supply concerns. Oil exporting group OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase during its meeting over the weekend.

Meanwhile, soymeal futures traded higher on the CME, amid some strength in soybeans. Prices were underpinned by lingering bullish fundamentals and a weaker US Dollar Index.

Expectations of a trade deal between the US and China continued to set a positive tone after US President Donald Trump said soybeans would be a key topic in his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in four weeks.

The most-active December soymeal futures on the CME went up by 0.43% to $280.50 per short ton at 1pm US Eastern time.

South America physical market basis moves

In the physical market in South America, 4,000 tonnes of Argentine soyoil for December loading traded at a discount of 1.1 cents per lb to December CME soyoil futures.

The November basis in Argentina was assessed at a discount of 1 cent per lb to December futures, while in Brazil the corresponding basis was assessed at a premium of 0.45 cents per lb to the same futures contract.

In the soymeal front, the November basis in Brazil fell by $1 per short ton compared with the previous assessment, to a discount of $3 per short ton to December futures.

In Argentina, the corresponding soymeal basis also declined by $3.00 per short ton compared with the previous price, assessed at a discount of $8.50 per short ton to the same futures contract.

As of 6:20pm Central European time, Euronext November rapeseed futures were trading at €457.50 ($537) per tonne, down by €4.50 per tonne from the previous session.

FOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil prices eased in the front month, while the backwardation in the forward curve narrowed.

For the November–December–January (NDJ-26) window, offers were made at €1,075-1,085 per tonne, compared with €1,080 per tonne on Thursday, while bids were made at €1,050-1,065 per tonne, compared with €1,075-79 per tonne on Thursday.

For the February-March-April (FMA) window, offers were made at €1,044-1,045 per tonne and bids were made at €1,030-1,035 per tonne, compared with offers of €1,040-1,047 per tonne and bids at €1,025-1,030 per tonne on Thursday.

No rapeseed oil trades were heard on Friday.

Veg oils price commentary: Sunflower oil in EU and Black Sea

FOB sunflower oil prices across six EU ports edged higher on Friday.

Offers for the November-December window were made at $1,340 per tonne, with bids of $1,315 per tonne, compared with offers made at $1,340 per tonne and bids of $1,310 per tonne on Thursday.

In the January–March (JFM) window, offers were made at $1,295 per tonne and drew bids of $1,280 per tonne, compared with offers of $1,285 per tonne and bids of $1,272.50 per tonne on Thursday.

No sunflower oil trades were heard on Friday.

The Black Sea sunflower oil market strengthened on Friday, supported by stronger demand from India and the EU alongside a sluggish pace of farmer selling in the seed market.

For November, Russia-origin oil for first-half shipment was heard at $1,280 per tonne CIF Mersin against bids near $1,260 per tonne, although earlier in the day indications as high as $1,290 per tonne versus $1,270 per tonne were also reported.

Market talk pointed to a trade concluded into India around $1,300 per tonne for November shipment on Thursday, equivalent to roughly $1,280–1,285 per tonne CIF Mersin, providing a reference point for current price levels.

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