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According to Alves, Brazil should follow Indonesia’s example and put Brazilian aluminium on its list of critical minerals, which could support an increase in its production with the private and public sectors working together.
“[Indonesia] is a country that used to export a lot of bauxite, but about ten years ago made a decision to create mechanisms to encourage the construction of aluminium refineries and smelters domestically, in order to add more value along the production chain,” Alves said. “And they did that very well. Today, there are several new aluminium capacity projects underway in Indonesia.”
Fastmarkets’ research team highlighted that Indonesia is emerging as a key participant in the global aluminium and alumina supply chain, driven by an ambitious refinery expansion program and growing foreign investment. The nation’s strategy to move up the value chain – shifting from raw bauxite exports to integrated alumina refining and primary aluminium production – is rapidly taking shape, supported by Chinese-led financing and strong policy incentives.
By 2026, Indonesia is expected to commission multiple refineries, marking a step change in regional alumina supply. This surge positions Indonesia as Southeast Asia’s dominant refining hub, reshaping trade flows previously centered on Australia and China.
Alves highlighted that CBA has 50,000 tonnes per year of idle capacity to produce aluminium, with the restart of Furnace Room 1 – included in the company’s long-term investment plan – expected to utilize this capacity.
Brazil should be the protagonist in aluminium production worldwide, as it is also a low-carbon material, Alves said.
Currently, CBA’s green material has an emission of 2.8 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) per tonne of aluminium produced, covering Scope 1 and 2 emissions. The company uses 100% renewable energy, which comes from hydroelectric power and wind farms.
Scope 1 emissions refer to direct emissions generated by an entity or its subsidiaries, while Scope 2 are the indirect emissions from energy used by an organization.
For Alves, there’s already an “indirect green premium” in the market.
“We believe that, in the medium term, as the consumer market matures, the industry might be willing to pay more for green aluminium. But in general, there is an indirect premium now – the customer values green material and prefers it, mainly some sectors, [such] as the beauty/cosmetics one. A product that is not green has more difficulty selling, so producers have to lower prices to compete. While we have a competitive advantage and can charge more for being green,” Alves said.
He added that CBA, even though it already has low emissions, wants to reduce carbon emissions by a further 40% by 2030.
Alves said that Brazil and CBA are not very affected by the 50% tariffs on aluminium imports to the US imposed by President Donald Trump.
On March 12, a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports into the US – a measure that reinstated the original parameters of Section 232 – went into effect, a month after Trump signed an executive order on the subject. On June 4, an increase to 50% tariffs for steel and aluminium was implemented.
“Only 3% of our production was exported to the US, mainly foils. We’ve redirected it to Europe and Latin America. So we are fine. Besides, we have production flexibility, since we are in the whole chain – from bauxite to semi-fabricated products. Therefore, we can start producing more ingots, for example, if we are not able to sell more foils to the US,” Alves explained.
The CEO said that sales remain strong, both in the Brazilian market and abroad. In the current context of discussions around the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe, there has been an increase in demand for aluminium ingots.
“If you deliver the ingot by December, you don’t have the CBAM. So everyone is more or less building up stock, anticipating that the CBAM will come – although, of course, it’s still uncertain,” Alves said.
“So, we made a bit of a change in our product mix – perhaps shifting more toward ingots now, since that’s where demand is – but we’re still selling rolled products to other clients. We redirected some volumes from US customers to European ones, so globally, overall volumes weren’t significantly affected,” he added.
On the other hand, Alves said that the tariffs cause more competitiveness within the Brazilian markets, with more companies worldwide starting to redirect products to Brazil as they lost the US market.
“Even with the tariffs and rising competition, CBA is standing out with a low-carbon product and long-term established relationship with clients, which creates a competitive advantage for us,” Alves said.
“This increased competition generated by the tariffs is temporary – the US is working with inventories, which will run out by the end of the year, so Americans will have to go back to buying, even while paying the tariffs,” he added.
The US Midwest primary aluminium premium has increased to a new historic high.
Sources have said inventory depletion applied upward pressure on the Midwest premium.
“[The rise in the Midwest premium transaction level] seems to be more of a function of inventories, which are drawing, and people are starting to look at these replacement costs,” a US-based trader said.
Fastmarkets assessed the daily aluminium P1020A premium, ddp Midwest US at 84-86 cents per lb on Thursday, compared with 82.0-84.5 cents per lb on October 29.
CBA participates in the low value-added tax (VAT) aluminium market in Brazil, primarily selling material at a deferred tax in the state of São Paulo.
Fastmarkets assessed the aluminium P1020A premium, low-VAT market, delivered São Paulo region at $215-250 per tonne on October 28, stable since August 19.
The corresponding aluminium P1020A premium, high-VAT market, delivered São Paulo region was assessed at $110-140 per tonne on Tuesday, stable since September 2.
Fastmarkets’ fortnightly assessment for the aluminium 6063 & 6060 extrusion billet premium, ddp São Paulo was $520-570 per tonne on October 21, stable from October 7.
And Fastmarkets’ monthly assessment of the aluminium low-carbon differential P1020A, Europe was $0-20 per tonne on October 3, stable since April 4.
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