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Prices were supported at the start of July, with wheat 11.5% fob CVB assessed by Fastmarkets in the low $220s per tonne and feed wheat fob CVB just above $210 per tonne, before rising to seasonal highs in early August. Values peaked near $242-243 per tonne for 11.5% wheat and around $236-237 per tonne for feed wheat, supported by easing harvest pressure and short-term logistical tightness and, for feed wheat, the lack of availability of such grade.
Since mid-August, the market has gradually eased and stabilized, reflecting a comfortable supply rather than demand-led strength. From September onward, 11.5% milling wheat mostly traded within a $229-235 per tonne range, while feed wheat maintained a discount of around $6-10 per tonne.
By December, prices were assessed around $230-233 per tonne for 11.5% wheat and $226-228 per tonne for feed wheat FOB CVB. Market participants continue to describe the season as relatively good in production terms but challenging for prices and trade.
A similar trend was seen in the 12.5% milling wheat market. Prices started July in the high $220s per tonne FOB CVB and rallied into early August, when values briefly exceeded $245 per tonne on stronger demand for higher-protein wheat. Thereafter, prices eased and moved sideways, with assessments largely in the $232-238 per tonne range through the autumn. By late November and December, 12.5% wheat stabilized around $232-235 per tonne, with protein premiums narrowing amid ample availability and buyer resistance.
“Lower exports this year are not driven solely by the delayed harvest, but more importantly by the pricing environment. Prices were not attractive enough for farmers, discouraging sales during harvest,” trade sources told Fastmarkets.
Compared with 2024-2025, the situation appears more complex. Regional yields are high and close to record levels, yet low prices and the cumulative strain of several weak seasons are weighing heavily on farmers’ selling decisions.
As a result, farmer selling has remained limited. “Farmers prefer to hold stocks in anticipation of better prices. Many are prepared to wait until April-May or until their available cash resources are fully exhausted. While this strategy may not appear profitable at first glance, selling at current price levels would imply immediate losses, making waiting the only viable alternative,” a source added.
“Export flows have also been affected by increased competition. Ukraine and Russia entered the export market aggressively as early as August, with shipments starting from early July. Traditionally, Europe – particularly Bulgaria and Romania – has been first to market, but this advantage did not materialize this year, further limiting early-season export momentum from the CVB region,” market sources said.
Within the wider CVB market, Bulgaria and Romania continue to be viewed as a single commercial space despite serving different logistical segments. Bulgaria focuses mainly on smaller vessels and ports and remains particularly strong into Algeria, while Romania handles larger vessels and has redirected volumes toward destinations such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria, largely at the expense of Egypt.
Romania’s wheat exports show a clear shift in destination patterns and a modest increase in total volumes between the two periods. According to Eurostat, in June-October 2024 (official data for November-December have not yet been published), total shipments reached around 3.49 million tonnes, with Egypt (638,000 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (448,734 tonnes) and Algeria (287,349 tonnes) as the main destinations.
According to market sources, Egypt has lost importance as a destination due to its stronger reliance on Russian wheat. As a result, Romanian exporters have redirected volumes toward alternative markets, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the leading destination in July-October 2025, when exports rose to approximately 794,651 tonnes, followed by Jordan (422,247 tonnes) and Algeria (219,424 tonnes), which is looking mainly for 11.5% wheat that was missing in Russia while a lot was produced in the CVB market. Market participants suggest that actual exports for this period may be around 4.5 million tonnes, reflecting ongoing shipments and unreported deliveries.
In June-October 2024, total shipments reached around 2.88 million tonnes, while in July-October 2025 exports amounted to approximately 1.66 million tonnes, reflecting slower selling and cautious farmer behavior amid low prices. According to market participants, cumulative exports are estimated at around 2.5 million tonnes so far, rising to roughly 3 million tonnes by December, down from over 4 million tonnes at the same time last season.
Algeria, Egypt and Spain were the leading destinations in both seasons. In June-October 2024, shipments to Algeria stood around 1.02 million tonnes, followed by Egypt with roughly 300,000 tonnes and Spain with around 245,000 tonnes. In July-October 2025, exports became more concentrated, with Algeria absorbing approximately 808,000 tonnes, while Spain received about 205,000 tonnes and Egypt around 47,500 tonnes, highlighting a sharper decline in flows to secondary markets.
“Export flows this season have been slower to start, partly due to a later harvest and partly because low prices discourage farmer selling. Logistics across the region remain sufficient and orderly, and while some trading companies have stepped back due to thin margins, they are expected to return quickly once conditions improve,” sources said.
By contrast, the 2024-2025 marketing year began under heavier harvest pressure but later developed into a strong autumn rally, with CVB milling wheat prices approaching $250 per tonne and feed wheat moving into the low $230s. That delayed surge supported margins and sentiment more effectively than in the current season.
“The year has been extremely difficult for grain producers due to prolonged drought, which severely compromised spring crop yields. Farmers were left mainly with wheat and barley, while corn and sunflower harvests are the lowest in the past 20 years. At the same time, production costs and land rents remain high, and market prices fail to compensate for these expenses. This has led to reluctance to sell and sharply reduced investment appetite. The market environment remains challenging, with no clear drivers for price increases in the short term,” another source said.
Market sources expected that prices would remain broadly stable through the holiday period, with no major volatility. Assuming normal winter conditions and the absence of weather shocks, the next season is viewed with cautious optimism, offering a better chance to restore balance between farmers and traders as trading normalizes and full supply becomes available.
“The winter months – January and February – will be critical. Any crop damage, frost events or other weather-related issues in the Northern Hemisphere could support prices. For farmers, waiting represents a calculated risk and a hope of avoiding larger losses later on,” market sources said.
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