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The wheat market remains in flux as production has shifted away from a stable, transparent US hub to more regional production centers, notably the Black Sea. Disruptions from geopolitical conflicts, severe weather and logistic snarls have upended traditional trade flows and driven price volatility. While overall global production remains stable, buyers are facing supply and price uncertainty throughout the market, from animal feed to pasta production.
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In the 2023/24 marketing year, Russian wheat exports surpassed 55.4 million tonnes, driven by increased harvests and competitive prices, although restrained by government-mandated floor prices and shifting dynamics among exporters.
The start of the Black Sea region’s new wheat marketing year from Monday, July 1 offers an opportunity to look back on the previous marketing year and to focus on Ukraine’s experience and the effect that the self-declared humanitarian corridor has had on the country’s agricultural exports.
US corn futures dropped for a sixth consecutive trading day on Wednesday June 26 while rain continued to fall in growing areas of the Midwest, with market participants positioning before a USDA acreage report to be released on Friday.
Updated forecast by trade association Cocereal pegs 2024 wheat crop slightly higher than previous projections
A report by the USDA forecasts an increase in US ending stocks for 2024/25 to 769 million bushels, alongside a slight decrease in global stockpile estimates.
The Ukrainian Grain Association estimated the 2024/25 crop of oilseeds and grains in Ukraine at 74.6 million tonnes, down by 2% from the initial forecast of 76.1 million tonnes in March.
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