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Rio Tinto boosted copper production last year, beating its own forecasts, it said on Wednesday January 21, as prices for the red metal rallied with future supply deficits expected to continue to widen and as investors remain concerned over rising risk of mine disruptions.
Copper output rose by 11% to 883,000 tonnes last year, buoyed by a ramp-up in production at the producer’s giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. Rio Tinto initially targeted production of 860,000-875,000 tonnes of the metal in 2025.
“Record copper production continues following delivery of our Oyu Tolgoi underground project, another demonstration of our unique and diverse project capabilities,” Rio Tinto said.
The miner is ramping up Oyu Tolgoi output to about 500,000 tonnes per year from 2028 to 2036, it said. Output at the Mongolian mine surged by 61% last year to 345,000 tonnes of copper concentrates, the miner told Fastmarkets.
The world’s biggest miners are racing to boost output of copper as rising demand for this critical metal, which is forecast to continue to have lagging supply, spurs a price rally.
Disruptions in operations at key mines including Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan’s last year also raised lingering supply-side concerns.
The shortages have also led to further tightening in the copper concentrates market.
Fastmarkets calculated the weekly copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific at $(71.50) per tonne on January 16 from $(69.80) per tonne a week earlier.
The global copper supply deficit will tighten to about 300,000 tonnes in 2026 from 59,000 tonnes last year, mostly owing to supply disruptions experienced at key mines last year, Fastmarkets analyst James Moore said.
Rio Tinto rival BHP lifted its copper output forecast for fiscal year to June 2026 to 1.9-2 million tonnes from an initial target of 1.8-2 million tonnes of copper, it said on Tuesday.
In the six months to December, copper output was in line with guidance at 984,000 tonnes, BHP said.
China’s CMOC Group said on January 15 that copper output is forecast to reach 760,000-820,000 tonnes as it ramps up output at its key mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
A $1.1 billion investment currently under way at its Kisanfu mine and additional expansion at Tenke Fungurume Mining in the DRC could raise CMOC’s copper output to 1 million tonnes by 2028, it said.
CMOC produced about 741,000 tonnes of copper last year.
Canadian miner Teck Resources also said on Wednesday that its copper production last year, at 453,500 tonnes, was within an initial target to produce 415,000-465,000 tonnes of the metal.
Still, supply jitters persist despite the upbeat production numbers, Fastmarkets analyst Andy Cole said.
“We have learned from experience time and again over the years that the next supply disruption could just be around the corner,” Cole said. “But these kinds of results do show that, at times, mines can really pull it out of the bag.”
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