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Europe’s dependence on imported metals leaves it highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks, given its limited domestic production and processing capacity, panelists said.
“Europe is globally very dependent on imports of whatever metal or mineral we’re talking about,” Greenwich Metals Inc trader Valery Sikorskiy said.
“As a result, it is highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, whether in the Middle East or previously in Ukraine,” he added.
Managing director, Women in Mining UK, Lucy Crane said Europe “imports a huge amount [and] does not necessarily process it itself.”
Smelting capacity has become a key focus for market participants, with Trafigura chief executive officer Richard Holtum saying at London Metal Exchange Week 2025 that “mining is not critical; refining and smelting is critical.”
Efforts to expand smelting capacity in Europe include the potential restart of Norsk Hydro’s Slovalco plant in Slovakia, which has been offline since 2022, alongside Alcoa’s San Ciprián smelter returning to full capacity after curtailments in 2021.
These developments come despite broader capacity losses, including the closure of Aldel’s smelter in the Netherlands in 2021, Uniprom’s KAP smelter in Montenegro and Speira’s Rheinwerk operations in Germany in 2023.
“The last 18 months have exposed the fragility of these markets,” said senior research analyst, Triland Metals Limited, Jonathon Sims, adding that Europe remains heavily dependent on a limited number of countries to process mined material into usable products.
Sims said supply tightness has been exacerbated by disruptions at Grasberg in 2025, one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, which produces about 1.7 billion pounds of copper annually.
According to Fastmarkets analysts, the global copper market is expected to move into a deficit of around 150,000 tonnes in 2026, widening to more than 300,000 tonnes in 2027, reinforcing the tightening supply outlook.
Fastmarkets calculated the weekly copper EQ cathode premium, cif Europe at $120-150 per tonne on Tuesday May 5.
Sims also highlighted aluminium supply risks, noting that the Middle East accounts for about 9% of global output.
Fastmarkets analysts expect a deficit of more than 2 million tonnes this year.
European aluminium premiums have risen sharply in response, with around 20% of regional supply sourced from the Gulf, much of it in value-added products such as billet.
Fastmarkets assessed the aluminium 6063 extrusion billet premium, ddp North Germany (Ruhr region) at $1,150-1,255 per tonne on Friday May 8, doubled from $560-600 per tonne on February 27.
Fastmarkets assessed the aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dp Rotterdam at $570-615 per tonne on May 5, up from $360-390 per tonne on February 27. The latest assessment was $580-625 per tonne on May 8.
Interested in staying up-to-date on the copper and aluminium industries? Access Fastmarkets’ price data, market analysis and forecasting. Speak to one of our experts to find out more.
Panelists said demand growth remains structurally strong, further increasing reliance on primary supply.
“The global economy is dependent on a consistent supply of metals,” founder, Critical Minerals Hub, Amanda Van Dyke said.
“Copper supply is not keeping pace, particularly on the primary side, with the rate at which demand is increasing,” Sims said.
Van Dyke added that demand is structurally increasing each year, while policy focus is shifting.
“We are seeing policy language move much more toward national security and far less toward the energy transition,” she said.
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