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Key takeaways:
Climate forecasters warn the current El Niño event could rank among the strongest on record.
For Europe, the central concern is energy. TTF [Title Transfer Facility] natural gas futures – the dominant European benchmark for gas prices – have risen by more than 15% over the past four weeks to around €49 ($57) per MWh (megawatt hour), driven in part by ongoing disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Because gas typically sets the marginal price of electricity across much of Europe, that move feeds directly into the power bills of energy-intensive industries within days, making it a closely watched indicator for anyone exposed to European industrial energy costs.
EU electricity prices for energy-intensive industries already run at more than twice the levels paid by US manufacturers and roughly 50% above those faced by Chinese competitors, according to the International Energy Agency.
A sustained El Niño-driven tightening of global LNG balances would add further pressure to a cost structure that European primary metal producers have not recovered from since the 2022 energy crisis.
The exposure is sharpest in primary aluminium. European smelters are among the most electricity-intensive industrial operations in the world, and those without long-term power agreements are highly vulnerable to any renewed spike in spot electricity costs, according to trade sources.
The near-term risk is not mass closures but lower operating rates, deferred restart decisions and weakening investment confidence – all of which would further erode Europe’s primary output capacity and increase import dependence.
“A strong El Niño could have a real impact on energy markets, and that would feed through into secondary aluminium,” one major European mainland secondary aluminium ingot producer said. “With the LME cash price and premiums already high, the question is whether European producers can absorb another jump in power costs. In our view, the answer is probably not.”
“Energy cost is already the single biggest variable in our cost base, and that was before El Niño became part of the conversation,” another European secondary aluminium producer said.
“If TTF pushes back towards last winter’s levels, some of the smaller remelters simply won’t be able to absorb it. That will take capacity out of the market and tighten scrap availability further – which is the last thing consumers need right now.”
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That pressure is accelerating a shift toward secondary production that was already under way. Because remelt and diecasting operations need only a fraction of the energy consumed by primary smelting, scrap is increasingly valued not just as a cost input but as an energy hedge.
Demand for clean wrought and used beverage can grades is expected to remain firm through the second half of the year, sources said.
Lower-grade mixed scrap faces a tougher outlook. “We are already seeing buyers treat clean wrought grades differently to mixed or contaminated material,” one UK aluminium scrap merchant said.
“The energy cost of sorting and processing low-grade scrap is becoming a real barrier, and if power prices move higher again, that gap widens. The flight to quality in scrap is not a trend anymore – it is a structural feature of this market.”
The same dynamic is reshaping European steel. Blast furnace producers remain exposed to elevated gas, electricity and carbon costs against a backdrop of subdued industrial demand, while electric arc furnace producers hold a relative advantage through their reliance on scrap and their lower carbon footprint.
The caveat is that EAF operators are themselves exposed to power price volatility, and those without renewable energy contracts or captive generation are increasingly viewed as structurally weaker than those that have secured longer-term supply, trade sources said.
“The EAF mills that have locked in renewable power contracts are in a completely different position to those buying on spot,” one European ferrous scrap trader said.
“When TTF spikes, the spread between those two groups on operating cost can be enormous. It is making clean, low-residual ferrous scrap even more valuable to the mills that can actually use it efficiently.”
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Competition for high-quality ferrous scrap is expected to stay firm through the second half of the year as a result, sources said. However, stainless steel is relatively better positioned: the sector’s already high dependence on recycled feedstock gives it greater resilience than primary metal segments, though energy-intensive melt operations remain exposed if electricity costs rise sharply later in the year, according to stainless steel scrap traders.
The broader story is one the scrap metals market has been telling for some time: European industry is treating scrap less as a waste stream and more as a strategic resource, one that carries embedded energy savings, a lower carbon footprint and greater supply security.
The first European mainland producer said: “More broadly, some end users need to rethink the chemical make-up of certain alloys if they want to keep using scrap. That shift in thinking must happen sooner or later. Otherwise, whether because of CO2 pressure or dependence on primary smelters, they will keep running into problems.”
“Europe also needs to decide quickly that scrap is a strategic raw material and make it less attractive to export, including through tariffs. If it does not, Europe will lose the competition for scrap against Asia.”
If El Niño develops into a severe global energy event, that shift is likely to move considerably faster than anyone currently expects.
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