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The 2025–2026 Steel Industry Growth Plan, jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, was publicly released on Monday September 22, marking Beijing’s latest efforts to restructure and optimize an industry that accounts for more than half of global steel output.
The plan aims to achieve average annual growth of about 4% in value added in 2025-2026, while prioritizing “quality improvement and reasonable growth.”
This target is little changed from the growth target of over 4% for 2024 and about 3.5% for 2023.
The plan prioritizes the development in quality. The steel industry “must break away from the inertia of scale expansion,” shift to a balance between market supply and demand, optimizing industrial structure, and improving the quality and efficiency of supply, and develop “new quality productivity” in a way that suits local conditions, the MIIT said.
China’s steel sector is experiencing a downturn, given that consumption has already peaked and that margins across mills remain thin in recent years, MIIT officials acknowledged.
Demand from property and infrastructure – once the main engines of steel consumption – is falling, while gains in autos, shipbuilding and other manufacturing sectors remain too modest to offset the decline.
Additionally, trade tensions are compounding uncertainty for exports.
Meanwhile, steel enterprises were also under growing operating pressure, jeopardizing the potential for stable development. Profits across China’s steel industry fell by 42.6% year on year to 66.3 billion yuan ($9.3 billion) in 2024, leaving many firms in negative territory, before seeing a rebound to 83 billion yuan in profits in the first seven months of 2025, MIIT said, warning that the recovery is fragile.
More than 80% of steel capacity in China is expected to complete ultra-low emissions upgrades by the end of 2025. This year also marks the industry’s first inclusion in China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme. All that points out increased demand for steel mills to step up their investment in green transition, according to the MIIT.The plan lays out five main focus areas, encompassing 10 specific measures designed to reshape the sector’s trajectory.
Authorities will tighten capacity and production controls, phasing out outdated facilities while encouraging advanced technologies such as electric arc furnaces (EAF) and hydrogen metallurgy. A new three-tier classification system will steer various resources toward leading players, with weaker firms gradually forced out.
The plan mentions that China will continue to rein in steel production, setting the annual production control targets in accordance with the principle of supporting advanced enterprises and forcing the exit of backward and inefficient production capacity, in attempt to promote the dynamic balance of supply and demand.
China aims to strengthen domestic capabilities in the production of high-end materials such as bearing steel, gear steel and high-temperature alloys through joint research and development with downstream industries and research institutes. Meanwhile, steel products used in autos, machinery, shipbuilding and home appliances will face higher standards, with expanded certification for low-carbon steel and quality traceability for key items like rebar.
For steelmaking raw materials, Beijing aims to stabilize supply and prices by supporting domestic iron ore projects, protecting compliant miners and avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach while regulating the industry, encouraging long-term contracts for coking coal and encouraging imports of high-quality coal and scrap. Integrated recycling hubs will also be built in scrap-rich regions to strengthen resource security.
The plan calls for accelerated renewal of aging blast furnaces and other equipment, promotion of smart factories and broader adoption of artificial intelligence in steelmaking processes. The removal of the long steelmaking process of blast furnace-converter route and development of the short process of EAF route is encouraged in regions with the necessary conditions.
On the decarbonization front, hydrogen metallurgy and clean energy substitution are encouraged, while the plan also promotes the establishment of digital energy and carbon management centers by industry enterprises. The sector should accelerate the establishment of carbon footprint accounting standards for steel products, strengthening carbon measurement management, improve the quality of carbon accounting data and prepare for carbon quota trading and settlement after being included in the national carbon emission trading market.
Domestically, steel use will be promoted in housing, public buildings and bridges, with industry associations encouraged to build cooperation mechanisms across the construction supply chain. Deeper partnerships with shipbuilding and transport sectors are also planned.
On the international front, Beijing will tighten management of steel exports to maintain order and optimize the structure of exported products. Alignment with global standards for product quality and carbon footprint measurement will be pursued, while Chinese firms are encouraged to expand cooperation with Belt and Road markets in products, technology, and services.
The 2025-2026 work plan is largely a continuation of the 2023-2024 Steel Industry Growth Plan and will help guide the industry development, promoting stable operation, structural optimization and upgrading of the steel industry to achieve high-quality development in the coming two years, Zhang Longqiang, deputy secretary-general of the China Iron and Steel Association, said.
Meanwhile, market participants were disappointed about the absence of a detailed steel production target for 2025-2026, while the plan aims average annual growth of about 4% in added value.
“The definition of value added is not clear. It didn’t specify output or steel price,” a Chinese trader said.
Prices for steel and key steelmaking raw materials showed little reaction to the launch of the 2025-2026 Steel Industry Growth Plan on Monday.
Futures prices for finished steel – rebar and HRC – and raw materials – coke, coking coal, and iron ore – ended the trading day in mixed territory.
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