Green Steel Intelligence

Forward pricing and market forecasts for low-emissions steel

Forward pricing and market outlooks for green steel in Europe

Low-emissions steel is now priced at the intersection of carbon costs, energy spreads and route economics. Premiums clear where those inputs align and move as policy, cost curves and supply pathways change.  

Fastmarkets Green Steel Intelligence provides a market reference for green steel pricing and premium direction, anchored to Fastmarkets’ PRA-grade green steel assessments and forward market outlooks.

Price green steel premiums against a market reference
Use one reference point to price premiums, compare routes and assess competitiveness across emissions profiles.
Green steel price benchmarks 

Market-anchored green steel pricing references  

Forward outlook 

Short-term market direction plus long-range outlooks of price and premium direction  

Demand signals 

Clarity on where premiums can clear across downstream uses and sectors 

Supplier benchmarking 

Visibility into supply transitions and competitive positioning at the facility level 

Emission pathway comparison 

Route and regional cost context to compare low-emissions pathways 

Scenario insights 

See how prices, premiums, and volumes change under different market conditions 

Powered by Fastmarkets Carbon
Uncover truth in every tonne. Green Steel Intelligence is reinforced by Fastmarkets’ metals coverage and carbon coverage across the cost, pricing, and policy signals that shape green steel premiums and route competitiveness.

Boat, Transportation, Vehicle
  • Quantify CBAM exposure using Fastmarkets’ proprietary CBAM Cost Calculator, built to convert policy inputs into cost outcomes for trade-facing decisions. 
  • Track EU ETS price direction and market outlook and link it to route competitiveness and premium durability 
Person, Worker, Adult
  • Follow carbon pricing and flows to understand the market signals shaping wider decarbonization economics 
Flag
  • Compare carbon pricing regimes and procurement rules across markets as policy conditions change 
What’s happening in green steel market?

Get the latest news and updates on green steel premiums, CBAM, and EU ETS

How Europe’s green steel production competes with the rest of the world

How policy and innovation are narrowing Europe’s green steel cost gap

Low-emission steelmaking capacity in Europe is currently constrained amid challenging market conditions. However, recent regulatory developments have strengthened supplier confidence, helping to unlock next phase of investments.

Europe's green steel premiums face pressure from CBAM and EU ETS costs. Understand pricing dynamics and path to price parity through 2035.

From EU ETS free allocation phase-out to CBAM transmission and hydrogen cost uncertainty, green steel investment and procurement decisions now hinge on premium durability and cost convergence timing. This report provides scenario-based forecasts across six emissions intensity bands and production routes to support capex, sourcing, and strategy decisions through 2035.

Model premium risk, compare route economics, and stress-test assumptions against policy shifts.

Meet the team behind our green steel intelligence module:

Stuart Evans

Chief Analytics Officer, Fastmarkets

Formal Wear, Face, Happy

Josh Cowley

Head of Research, Carbon Markets

Shyamal Patel

Head of Modelling, Carbon Markets

Carl Peters

Senior Economist, Fastmarkets

Abhishek Pathak

Economist, Fastmarkets