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Key takeaways:
The price gap between China’s domestic and international markets is expected to narrow, driven by an easing of Chinese export restrictions and a continued decline in global prices since the summer of 2025.
Antimony has attracted increasing attention from governments and industry over the past two years, with sharp price fluctuations driven by a combination of supply-demand dynamics and policy interventions.
Fastmarkets’ antimony price assessments began to rise in December 2023, reaching a historical high of $59,750 per tonne on July 4, 2025. The exceptionally high prices attracted several new smelters into the market, easing the supply of antimony metal. At the same time, elevated prices suppressed some downstream demand, leading to a subsequent correction. Prices have declined since July 2025.
Antimony is classified as a critical raw material by major economies including the EU, the US and China. Its role in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, alloys and defense-related applications continues to underpin steady underlying demand.
Global antimony supply is diversified at the raw material and metal/ingot stages, but remains highly concentrated in antimony trioxide (ATO) production.
China, Tajikistan, Russia, Bolivia and Myanmar account for the majority of primary antimony production. Several smaller-scale mines have emerged in Africa and Asia, but their output remains well below that of the key suppliers. Western mining projects are also exploring antimony production, but most remain at early development stages and are unlikely to materially alter global supply balances in 2026.
The landscape for processed antimony metal and ingot production is relatively diversified. Major sellers include Tajikistan, Southeast Asia, China, India, Turkey and Mexico. Capacity in Southeast Asia has increased significantly since last summer and market participants expect this trend to continue into 2026.
In contrast, the market for ATO is far more concentrated. Major suppliers include China, Belgium, France and Southeast Asia, with smaller volumes coming from South Korea, Japan, Bolivia and India. Market participants see limited near-term opportunities for meaningful supply growth outside these regions.
This structural divide highlights a persistent challenge: while primary production is geographically diversified, processed antimony materials remain concentrated in a small number of countries. Building new, secure supply chains for downstream products is therefore a long-term undertaking.
On the demand side, antimony consumption remains anchored by traditional industrial applications, particularly flame retardants, which account for roughly half of global end use. Demand from plastics, textiles and construction materials is expected to remain stable, supported by fire safety regulations, Fastmarkets understands.
The rapid expansion of the photovoltaic (PV) industry has emerged as a key long-term demand driver. According to data released by China’s National Energy Administration on December 26, 2025, new PV installations from January to November of that year reached 274.89GW, close to the full-year total of 277.17GW recorded in 2024.
Sodium antimonate plays a critical role as a glass clarifier in photovoltaic glass, helping to reduce melting temperatures and improve light transmission. There is currently no mature, cost-effective substitute. Despite production cuts in China’s PV glass sector in the second half of 2025 under “anti-involution” policies, industry sources said that long-term global energy transition trends will continue to underpin rigid demand for antimony, with sodium antimonate consumption expected to increase in 2026.
New demand from medical compounds and data centers is also supporting consumption of antimony trioxide, particularly in flame-retardant PVC.
“Wire and cable, especially for data centers, is a big driver,” a distributor said.
Lower ATO prices have reduced interest in substitute materials. The distributor added that replacement efforts have slowed because there is no direct one-to-one alternative for antimony-based flame retardants, while regulatory approvals remain costly and time-consuming.
“UL approvals can take at least six months and cost a lot of money,” the source said.
Lead-acid batteries also remain a significant source of demand, particularly in automotive, backup power and industrial applications.
In addition, antimony’s role in defense-related uses — including ammunition, alloys and specialized materials — has gained prominence amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Several sources said that strategic stockpiling and defense procurement have become more visible in recent years, particularly in the US.
Through its Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the US government has announced plans to stockpile several critical metals including antimony.
Want to learn more about strategic stockpiling? Listen to our episode of Fast Forward podcast on building a resilient critical minerals stockpile with Major General Alberto Rosende, CEO of M2I Global below.
Geopolitical factors are expected to remain a key driver of the antimony market through 2026. China’s export controls, combined with broader US-China trade tensions, have already reshaped global trade flows, prompting consumers to diversify sourcing where possible.
At the same time, governments are increasingly encouraging domestic or allied sourcing of critical minerals. While this has sparked renewed interest in antimony exploration and recycling, market participants have warned that building alternative supply chains will take time.
“Everyone wants [supply security], but antimony is not a metal you can just ramp-up overnight,” one trader said.
A key policy shift emerged in late 2025. On November 9, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the suspension of export bans on key minerals – including gallium, germanium and antimony – and related dual-use items destined for the US, with the suspension to continue until November 27, 2026. The move allows exports for civilian use to resume and was widely interpreted as a sign of easing Sino-US trade tensions.
The surge in China’s antimony exports in November also helped to boost market confidence. Market participants expect the segmentation and wide price gap created by export controls to gradually narrow over the coming year when trade flows normalize, with more raw materials expected to flow into China, Fastmarkets has learned.
Looking ahead in 2026, market participants broadly agree that antimony market dynamics will continue to be shaped by a combination of supply-demand fundamentals, policy decisions and geopolitical considerations.
Export controls, environmental regulations, defense priorities and trade relationships are expected to play decisive roles in determining how antimony moves through the global supply chain.
“China and the US have both tried to use resources as leverage, but there’s only so much you can do,” a second trader said. “China can still get chips and the US can still source critical materials. In the end, money talks and the market finds a way.”
Use trusted antimony prices and short-term outlooks to benchmark purchases, structure contracts, and manage risk across the minor metals supply chain. Backed by 150+ years of metals pricing, Fastmarkets delivers transparent data, downloadable history, and analysis you can defend internally. Find out more about Fastmarkets’ antimony prices here.