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Antofagasta Minerals is “transforming [its] business,” and is on track to grow copper output by almost 30% before the end of the decade, chief executive officer Iván Arriagada said at the Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday January 14, attended by Fastmarkets.
At the session titled “An expensive, complex and slow industry: Defining a fit-for-purpose business model,” industry leaders discussed how to deliver growth despite cost inflation, capital intensity and regulatory bottlenecks.
“We at Antofagasta have [our] operations in Chile… developing a platform where we are transforming our business by growing almost 30% and also looking into other regions to expand,” Arriagada said.
Antofagasta ranks among the top 10 largest copper producers in the world and is known as the primary trendsetter for global long-term pricing contracts for the TC/RC benchmark.
“We’re probably one of the few that will deliver around 30% growth before the end of the decade in terms of copper output,” Arriagada said.
According to the Chilean miner, the metals industry “is going through a critical period, a turning point” – with governments waking up to the fact that “critical minerals are needed for national security, electrification, [and] new technologies.”
Arriagada named permitting reform as a critical enabler, noting that approvals can take “16 to 18 years in some cases,” while pointing to continuing reforms in Canada, Argentina and Chile. He also cited policy support, tax predictability, innovative financing models and government collaboration with the private sector as essential to integrating mining into local communities and accelerating project delivery.
Faster, smarter permitting is essential, panelists agreed. Andrea De Mori, global managing director for metals at engineering consultancy Hatch, said governments are “starting to see momentum toward removing bureaucracy without compromising environmental standards,” citing recent steps in the North American and Saudi Arabian “ecosystems that are very favorable for fast-track mine development.”
The US has utilized the FAST-41 program to designate priority mining projects for expedited federal review. Recent steps include Executive Orders, in March 2025, mandating that agencies identify “priority projects” for immediate approval, and modernizing permitting technology to remove bureaucratic “paperwork backlogs.”
Meanwhile, in April 2024, the Canadian government set a strict target of five years or less for federal impact assessments (down from 12-15 years) and established a federal permitting coordinator to run multiple regulatory processes simultaneously.
In 2021, Saudi Arabia rolled out the Mining Investment Law, which simplified the application process for exploration licenses. In February 2025, the Unified Investment Law removed the requirement for a separate foreign license in favor of a simplified registration process for all investors.
The kingdom also launched the Accelerated Exploration Program (AEP) to fast-track the licensing of high-potential sites. Development of the Umm Ad Damar project, northeast of Jeddah, and Al Khunayqiyah project, southwest of Riyadh – the latter covering over 350 square km alone – were recently awarded to international consortia.
By utilizing a “competitive bidding” model rather than traditional first-come-first-served queues, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources has slashed licensing times to as little as 90 days – significantly faster than the years-long wait times common in other global mining jurisdictions.
“We can’t control the copper price, we can’t control metal prices, we’re price takers,” said First Quantum’s chief executive officer Tristan Pascall. “In this world of volatility, where are the areas that we can seek some level of stability? Regulatory functions can absolutely provide that.”
According to Pascall, an enabling environment will give mining investments a level of [confidence], because “we won’t be able to control all factors, but certainly to be able to see the regulatory environment through the future… gives you the confidence to invest.”
First Quantum Minerals is a top 10 global producer and Canada’s largest copper miner, primarily known for operating the massive Cobre Panama mine, and the Kansanshi mine in Zambia.
With declining head grades forcing higher throughput, mines are becoming more capital-intensive, Paul Brink, president of royalty and streaming company Franco-Nevada, said on the same panel.
“It does cost more to build mines today… The incentive price needs to rise so that you can get a return for projects to get built,” Brink said. He pointed to partnerships to share risk, citing Lundin’s joint venture with BHP on the Vicuña project as “a model for success.”
Finalized on January 15 2025, the Vicuña Corp. joint venture is a 50/50 partnership between Lundin Mining and BHP designed to consolidate and develop two world-class copper-gold-silver deposits: Filo del Sol and Josemaria in the Atacama region of Chile.
Arriagada said that Antofagasta is pursuing capital light growth by partnering on non-core infrastructure. “We’ve managed to sell some of our water systems and then purchase water as a simple supply,” he said, adding that such transactions provide cash relief and make growth “lighter in terms of capital.”
Arriagada said digital engineering, preassembly, and advanced planning are helping shorten construction schedules and de-risk projects.
The company in its expansion is currently “achieving a rate of investment of around $20,000 per tonne of capacity,” which he described as “quite low compared with what a greenfield would require,” he added.
Pascall had previously estimated future projects to exceed $30,000 per tonne of annual production.
“This is an industry that has momentum and adaptability. Technology is changing the way we operate and develop projects,” Arriagada told the audience, adding that under “enabling conditions,” mining can be “responsive.”
Marna Cloete, president & chief executive officer of Ivanhoe Mines, pointed to Kamoa Kakula in Central Africa as evidence that rapid execution is possible: “We’ve executed Kamoa Kakula with a 3-to-4-year horizon, expanding to a fully integrated mine producing close to 400,000 tonnes of copper [per year],” she said.
Pascall said First Quantum has “just brought in a level of commercial production… the first rail-run conveyor in the world,” which uses “30% of the energy of conventional” conveying systems, lowering operating expenses and supporting sustainability goals.
Wang Qinghai, chairman of CHX Mining, highlighted the use of AI and automation to address efficiency and labor constraints, referencing investment in autonomous trucks and jumbos.
The sector is also “extending further into mid-stream and downstream applications, integrating toward the chemical or manufacturing industry, sometimes almost overlapping with the automotive industry,” De Mori said. Success, he added, depends on teams with “overlapping bodies of knowledge” and owners willing to own and manage risks.
Copper prices remain highly sensitive to macro and geopolitics, Pascall said, warning that “geopolitical disruption is adding pressure on delivery,” which “illustrates how challenging the industry is.”
Projects must stand on their own economics across cycles, rather than be timed to short-term price spikes, Cloete said. “Copper is very reactive to macroeconomics – it’s not always based on the fundamentals… A project on its own must make sense and be able to ride a minimum threshold.”
Cloete pointed out that the problem with mining is that it’s a cyclical, long-term business. “We plan the execution of our projects to come online when the commodity prices are the highest possible, but that’s simply not how it works,” she said. “You should ride out the cycles. You should plan… whether the price is high today and low tomorrow.”
Like Arriagada, Pascall also mentioned “the debate about energy security” after “the West have outsourced for many decades and just put it beyond sight, beyond mind.”
“That’s very much coming back to fore,” said Pascall of the industry, but framed it as a latent opportunity.
Labor shortages are widespread, Wang added, citing a shortfall of “about 5,000 people” in Queensland, Australia, noting that “only 10%” of mining graduates in China enter the industry, and estimating that “80% of students [in Africa] lack skills” needed for mining roles, “if they are willing to go to the industry.”
He said that skills gaps can delay ramp-ups: “We bought a copper mine in 2024 for just $1 … [it] had been under development for 10 years. It’s impossible to make money because [of] lack of workers and engineers.”
To attract talent, Pascall said, companies must invest in local skills pipelines from Africa to Latin America and make mining appealing to younger professionals: “It has to happen in local markets… and we have to make the industry exciting,” he said.
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