ASIAN MORNING BRIEF 16/02: Aluminium defies upward trend in base metals; copper TCs/RCs slip in first half of February; China’s zinc output forecast to rise, demand to fall

The latest news and price moves to start the Asian day on Friday February 16.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were broadly higher at the close on Thursday February 15, with only aluminium falling. Read more in our live futures report.

Here are how LME prices looked at Thursday’s close:

Copper concentrate treatment and refining charges dropped marginally in the first half of February after traders purchased nearby tonnages from mines at increasingly competitive levels and smelters eased off buying ahead of Asia’s Lunar New Year holidays.

A rise in Chinese zinc production over the coming years will coincide with either a fall or a moderation in that country’s demand for the material, according to Claire Hassall, director and zinc market specialist at base metal research firm CHR Metals.

An uptick in Chinese zinc mine production combined with a reduction in demand should push LME prices lower in the second half of this year, a senior base metals analyst at Macquarie Group said.

Potential trade remedies as a result of the United States’ Section 232 investigation into aluminium imports could utilize a nuanced approach in the government’s effort to curb transshipment and duty evasion concerns.

Australian mining company South32 reported higher aluminium production in the first half of its 2018 financial year ended December 31, 2017, coinciding with a period of higher aluminium prices.

Canadian copper producer Capstone has sold its Minto mine to mining company Pembridge Resources for $37.5 million.

What to read next
Own-sourced copper output from Glencore’s African copper assets — KCC and Mutanda in the Democratic Republic of Congo — surged by 68% year on year to 67,900 tonnes over the same period, while Glencore’s cobalt production fell by 39% year on year amid the DRC’s export quota system.
Copper’s long-term outlook is constrained by the industry’s limited ability to bring new supply online fast enough to meet rising demand, with permitting delays, higher capital costs and policy risks slowing project development, industry executives said at the FT Commodities Global Summit on Wednesday April 22.
Capital is flowing back into junior mining, but selectively. Investment is increasingly favouring development‑stage assets with clearer paths to production, supported by government funding and strategic partnerships. While demand for critical minerals underpins the cycle, early‑stage explorers continue to struggle for capital as investors prioritise discipline, ESG alignment and near‑term cash flow.
Copper in concentrate production from Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) fell to 61,906 tonnes in the first quarter, down by 54% from 133,120 tonnes a year earlier, with the company now evaluating local third-party concentrate purchases to advance the ramp-up of its on-site smelter, according to an April 13 production release as the market focused its attention on the impact of global sulfuric acid shortages during CESCO Week in Chile from April 13-17.
China's planned sulfuric acid export ban from May 1, historic lows for copper concentrates treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) and a fragmenting 2026 benchmark system dominated CESCO Week 2026 in Santiago from April 13-17.
The proposal would align the index more closely with physically traded volumes in the region, and enable it to adjust to evolving market conditions. This proposal follows an observed widening of the spread between trader and smelter purchase components of the index and is aligned with a majority of market feedback. Additionally, Fastmarkets seeks feedback […]