Brazil’s 2020/21 corn estimate lowered to 94m mt, new crop upgraded: USDA

The USDA’s local office in Brazil lowered the country’s 2020/21 corn output estimate by 11 million mt from its previous forecast released in April to 94 million mt due to late planting and adverse weather conditions, a report dated June 21 said.

“The forecast, if realized, would represent the lowest production volume for Brazilian corn since MY 2017/18 when a drought severely hampered yields,” the local office said.

The new estimate is 2.6 million mt lower than the one set forth by the Brazilian food agency (Conab) on June 9, which was an “overoptimistic” outlook from the Brazilian agency, according to market analysts contacted by Agricensus.

For 2021/22, the USDA has raised output estimates by 2 million mt to 116 million mt backed by an increased acreage boosted by high corn prices.

Planted area is estimated at an all-time record of 19.8 million hectares for old crop and is forecast to increase by yet another 250,000 hectares in 2021/22.

Considering price incentives and a state campaign to raise corn production, “Brazil could easily smash its corn production record,” the report said.