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Brazil’s forestry industry has been ramping up investments in genetic improvement, research and development (R&D), pest-control solutions and artificial intelligence (AI) to tackle the effects of climate change, identified by market participants as the main threat to the sector, Fastmarkets has learned based on sustainability reports, expert analyses and industry sources.
These initiatives aim to strengthen the competitiveness and resilience of planted forests amid growing climate instability and unpredictability.
The main climate-related impacts on Brazilian forestry include reduced rainfall and water availability, rising extreme temperatures and increased incidence of pests and wildfires. Combined, these factors have already led some forestry regions to experience lower productivity, declining wood quality and, in some cases, total loss of planted areas due to drought or fires.
To address these challenges, companies in Brazil and across Latin America have stepped up investments to boost the resilience of commercial forests.
Suzano, for example, follows a long-term climate plan with 20-year projections and has expanded its plantation areas anticipating a possible 20% drop in rainfall. “There is a direct correlation between rainfall and forest growth. In Brazil’s Center-South region, forest growth rates have slowed. Today, planting is more expensive and uncertain,” Carlos Aníbal, Suzano’s executive vice president for Europe, said. “Wood will become an increasingly strategic resource, and those without access to it will face major challenges in producing pulp.”
According to Suzano’s forestry vice president Douglas Seibert Lazaretti, a decrease of 100 millimeters in rainfall corresponds to a reduction of 5 points in the forest productivity index (IMA). He noted that the company’s early investments in genetic improvement helped offset rainfall shortages in certain regions. “We haven’t recorded productivity losses thanks to advances in genetic material, operational quality and improved management.”
Experts told Fastmarkets that there is no consensus on the ideal temperature range for eucalyptus and pine plantations, as this varies by clone. However, research shows that temperatures below 0°C, where frost occurs, and above 40°C are harmful and can compromise both hardwood and softwood plantations in Brazil and Latin America. Frosts kill planted areas, while extreme heat hampers forest growth.
Brazil’s forestry industry currently occupies about 10.5 million hectares for commercial use and 7 million hectares for conservation. The broader “anthropized” area, roughly 115 million hectares, could potentially host eucalyptus or other plantation crops.
Predictive studies indicate that a global temperature increase beyond the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement could gradually shrink the area suitable for planting.
Gleison Santos, director at the Brazilian Company for Industrial Research and Innovation (Embrapii) and professor at UFV, said the forestry sector is well positioned to address these risks, also noting the need to remain cautious with predictive models. “We’re seeing localized temperature increases and rainfall reductions. Companies are adapting through genetic improvement to face these new conditions. The sector isn’t standing still,” he said.
He noted that around 150,000 hectares of forestry in Minas Gerais were lost due to water scarcity, but conditions have stabilized since 2017.
At Embrapa Florestas, researcher Marcos Wrege, who models future risks, warned of threats to Pinus Taeda, a species that thrives in colder climates, but said adaptation is possible through crossbreeding and genetics. “Companies using Pinus Taeda could shift to subtropical species that would likely grow well in today’s Pinus regions as average temperatures rise,” he said.
Sources diverge on which regions are most climate-sensitive. Areas such as Mato Grosso do Sul, a hub that faced recent forestry expansion, are more vulnerable to droughts and heatwaves. Conversely, Pinus Taeda plantations in Brazil’s colder regions may become riskier, requiring adaptation.
In 2025, Brazil recorded 85,200 wildfire outbreaks, down by 61% year on year, following the end of the El Niño phenomenon. AI and monitoring towers helped companies mitigate losses during the previous year. Suzano reported that, across its 2.8 million hectares of forests, only 500 hectares were lost to fires.
Other companies are also adopting AI to predict potential fire outbreaks using internal data analytics.
Despite hotter weather, eucalyptus productivity rose for the second consecutive year in 2024, reaching 34.4 m³/ha per year, according to Brazilian Tree Industry Association (Ibá) data, still below the 38.9 m³/ha per year recorded in 2021.
“The risks are real, and companies cannot ignore climate variability. Investment in new, climate-adapted clones is essential, and collaboration between companies, universities and research institutes plays a crucial role in this process,” Santos concluded.
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