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Brazilian steel industry association Aço Brasil has forecast that imports of rolled steel products into Brazil will rise by 10% in 2026 compared with 2025, to reach 6.324 million tonnes, it was revealed on Tuesday December 16.
The association has also estimated that 2025 will end with rolled steel imports totaling 5.748 million tonnes.
It is worth noting that the projected import total for the end of 2025 was revised downward from the association’s previous estimate, and now represented a reduction of 11.7 percentage points compared with the earlier projection.
“Given the scenario we see of several countries adopting measures [to protect themselves from imports], there will be increasing trade diversion, and our concern is that this material will come to Brazil,” André Johannpeter, chairman of the board of Gerdau and chairman of the board of directors of Aço Brasil, said during an exclusive press conference in São Paulo on Tuesday.
“If imports end up 10% above what is already projected for the end of 2025 [in volume], that would represent a historical record,” he added.
This narrative has been echoed by the association and Brazilian steelmakers since late October 2023 and has already resulted in the implementation of a quota-tariff mechanism and some anti-dumping measures.
On the other hand, apparent steel consumption in Brazil was expected to increase in 2026. According to Aço Brasil estimates, apparent consumption was forecast to reach 27.005 million tonnes in 2026, up by 1% compared with the association’s estimate for the end of 2025.
“What we would like to see is that part of this favorable growth scenario we see reflected in steel demand does not end up entirely in the hands of imports,” Johannpeter said. “It’s a historically strong level of steel consumption, but when you look at the estimate, 6.3 million tonnes are expected to be imported within a domestic consumption [totaling] 20.7 million tonnes.”
Job losses at Brazilian steel mills were also cited as one of the reasons producers were seeking stronger protective measures for the domestic steel industry.
Johannpeter and Marco Polo Lopes, executive president of Aço Brasil, cited Mexico as an example of a country that relied on employment figures as a justification for imposing new tariffs.
“In the Mexican government’s statement [announcing the new tariffs], it said that these measures are also being adopted because they face the risk of losing 320,000 jobs,” Lopes said.
According to Lopes, the outlook for employment in Brazil’s steel sector could worsen if no protective action were taken.
“We have always been dealing with excess installed capacity worldwide,” Lopes added, “enormous, excessive capacity, equivalent to 620 million tonnes [per year]. Another important reality… is that excess capacity is expected to reach 721 million [tpy] by 2027.”
According to Aço Brasil estimates, Brazilian crude steel production was expected to be down by 2.2% at the end of 2025 compared with 2024, totaling 33.129 million tonnes for the year. This figure was revised downward, because previous estimates pointed to a year-on-year decline of just 0.8%.
For 2026, the association estimated another 2.2% drop in crude steel production compared with 2025.
Domestic steel sales were expected to close 2025 at 21.165 million tonnes, down by 0.5% year on year. For 2026, sales were forecast to decline by a further 1.7%.
Steel exports, in turn, were projected to end 2025 at 10.234 million tonnes, up by 6.4% compared with 2024. Previously, export volumes were expected to rise by only 1%, a figure that was revised upward in Aço Brasil’s latest communication.
For 2026, the association estimated exports of 10.175 million tonnes, a 0.6% decline compared with 2025.
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