CFR China soybean premium turns negative for first time this season

Brazilian soybean prices are under further pressure from another bumper harvest and weak Chinese demand

Premiums for Brazilian soybean cargoes on a CFR China basis have turned negative for the first time this season in an indication of mounting pressure on soybean prices from another bumper harvest and weak demand in China.

There were reports Monday that March cargoes had traded at a 5 cents per bushel discount over March CME futures late last Friday as trading houses cut their risk exposure by reducing their long positions or logistic programs, according to a Chinese broker based in Shanghai.

Others also reported rumours of a trade as low as at a 10 cents per bushel discount around the same time for Brazil March shipment, although this could not be fully confirmed.

On Tuesday, sources reported trades at a 3 cents per bushel and 5 cents per bushel discount to March futures for Brazil March shipment, an indication that the switch to discounts is ongoing.

The trade levels would point to an earlier-than-usual venture into the negative territory for near-term Brazil shipments, which last year only turned into discounts for May and June shipments in April, when it is usually the time for Brazilian farmers to repay their loans and thus see more pressure to sell at low prices.

Good crop, high stocks and weak demand

A good South American soybean crop, a relatively low ratio of farmer selling, and an early Brazil harvest, combined with a weak Chinese demand for soybean meals have all contributed to the slump in premiums, according to another China-based broker.

“Last year, the discounts were seen in April because of congestions at Brazilian ports and a reduction in Argentinian crop at the time, which delayed the plunge; however the two conditions have both improved this year and that’s why we are seeing the discounts emerge so early,” a third broker said.

In addition, soybean stocks in China remain at a high level, while soybean meal trade volumes have been lukewarm, pointing to a lack of willingness to buy soybeans in the country, he said.

China’s weekly imported soybean stocks at major crushers as of January 26 decreased by 440,000 tonnes from a week ago to 6.38 million tonnes, but the level still represents 260,000 tonnes more than a month ago and a whopping 2.09 million tonnes more than a year ago, according to a note published on Tuesday by the China National Grain and Oil Information Centre.

Soybean meal stocks, meanwhile, stood at 1 million tonnes as of January 26, which is a slight decrease from a week ago but 60,000 tonnes more than a month ago and 470,000 tonnes more than a year ago, according to CNGOIC.

More price pressures to come?

In another potential sign of China’s weak demand, Sinograin was said to have recently pushed back their buying of five US soybean cargoes billed for February to March to now April, according to a note from Overseas China Investment.

The move could be aimed at making room for future soybean arrivals given the high levels of stocks of the crop right now, according to a China-based futures trader.

Going forward, even as crush margins in China are expected to be more positive amid plunging soybean prices, the pressure on premiums could remain, sources said.

“Theoretically, we still can see more pressure on prices as harvest progresses, because at some point farmers will have to sell, and there will be big volumes to sell, since only 30% of the 23/24 crop has been sold so far by producers,” said Daniele Siqueira from Agrural, adding that farmers in Brazil always have big bills to pay in March and April, and that forces them to sell more at that time of the year.

“However, if our crop keeps shrinking, with eventual problems in states that plant and harvest later, there might be little room for further price decreases,” she said.

Earlier this month, Brazilian food agency Conab cut its soybean crop estimates by 3.1% to 155.3 million tonnes, although the new estimates are still 0.4% higher than 2022/23’s 154.6 million tonnes record crop.

View our soybean prices

What to read next
The publication of Fastmarkets’ US and Brazil pig iron price assessments for Friday Feb 23 were delayed because of an administrative error.
Total EU soybean import for the year to date reaches 7.2 million tonnes, with Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Portugal being the main importers
What are the main challenges on the path to decarbonization and the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels for the aviation industry?
Analyzing trends, outlooks and influential factors in the global palm oil market
Brazil's food agency, Conab, has reduced its soybean and corn output forecasts due to adverse weather conditions impacting crop development,
Amid record volumes of imports, the Brazilian paper industry has joined steelmakers in requesting up to 25% import tariffs for certain products, which has worried importers and end users. In the wake of the Brazilian steel sector’s pleas in 2023, the Brazilian Tree Industry Association (Ibá) requested on January 16 that the government increase import duties […]