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A recent avian flu incident in Brazil has triggered global market reactions.
While headlines focused on poultry exports, a deeper impact is in the packaging sector. We project a significant contraction in corrugated board consumption in Brazil over the next three months. This will affect the entire packaging supply chain, as Brazil has yet to resume poultry exports and likely will not before mid-June unless another case arises.
We estimate poultry export suspensions will reduce corrugated paper shipments in Brazil by 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes monthly. This will total nearly 15,000 tons over three months. As corrugated board is critical for poultry packaging, this drop in demand will disrupt production schedules. It will also impact inventory planning and logistics operations across the sector.
That contraction is not just a temporary dip, but it reflects the vulnerability of packaging demand to external shocks in adjacent industries. As poultry producers scale back operations or redirect supply to domestic markets, the ripple effect on packaging converters and suppliers becomes unavoidable.
In May 2025, a single case of avian flu was confirmed at a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul. Although the outbreak was swiftly contained, the global response was swift and severe. Over 20 countries, including China, the European Union, Mexico and Canada, immediately suspended imports of Brazilian chicken.
As the world’s largest exporter of chicken meat, Brazil accounts for 35% of global trade. In 2024 alone, the country exported over 5 million tons. The current export suspensions affect nearly 60% of Brazil’s monthly shipments—approximately 240,000 monthly tonnes. Even if competitors like the US, EU and Thailand increase their exports by 15–20%, they would only cover about 27% of the shortfall. The result? A projected 14% increase in international chicken prices is expected in the coming months if that much chicken is missing and demand remains stable.
With exports halted, an estimated 800,000 tonnes of chicken will remain in the domestic market over the next three months. And this oversupply is expected to drive down local prices by as much as 18%, although actual impacts will depend on how much product reaches retail shelves.
This could relieve Brazilians’ household budgets, boosting the consumption of discretionary indulgences and more processed food, for instance, helping to recover part of the lost boxboard demand eroded by higher food inflation this year. However, some chicken producers may slow down slaughter rates to manage inventory, further complicating forecasts for packaging demand.
This episode underscores the interconnectedness of global value chains. A health event in one sector can cascade into economic consequences across others, highlighting the importance of agile forecasting and cross-sector intelligence. Understanding these dynamics is essential for packaging professionals to navigate volatility and identify new opportunities.
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