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Key takeaways:
The meeting focused on recent developments in the global lead and zinc markets, particularly the effects of continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weather-related disruptions to seaborne concentrate flows in Australia.
The latest guidance marks a decline of $60 per tonne from the $105-120 per tonne level set for the first quarter of 2026 in November last year.
The lower guidance level also broadly aligns with market expectations that zinc concentrate supply in 2026 will remain in a tight but balanced state, Fastmarkets understands.
Chinese smelters continue to show a clear preference for concentrates with higher byproduct content, given their stronger overall economic returns.
“The market is still in tight balance — not a shortage, but definitely tighter than last year,” a market participant said.
“Spot levels I’ve heard in the market are already well below this guidance level,” a second market source told Fastmarkets.
In the spot market, smelter purchase levels for some higher-grade or byproduct-rich zinc concentrates have been heard around $0 per tonne, with some tender results already in negative territory.
Following a sharp decline in Chinese domestic zinc concentrates TCs after the winter stockpiling period late last year, TCs in both northern and southern China have stabilized since January 2026 and shown a modest recovery.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for zinc concentrate TC spot, delivered South China was 1,300-1,600 yuan ($188-231) per tonne on February 27, up by 7.41% from 1,200-1,500 the previous month.
The price assessment for zinc concentrate TC spot, delivered North China was 1,500-1,700 ($217-246) per tonne on the same day, down by 5.88% from 1,600-1,800 per tonne from the previous month.
Fastmarkets’ twice-monthly assessment of the zinc spot concentrate TC, cif China was $0-30 per tonne on Friday March 13, down from $10-50 per tonne on February 27.
More recently, logistical disruptions linked to Middle East tensions — particularly affecting shipments of Iran-origin zinc — have prompted some smelters to step up procurement activity.
“I sold cargoes to some smelters in January and they were still quite selective,” a third trade source said. “But recently, their buying interest has picked up.”
Other market participants, however, downplayed the extent of the disruption, noting that it has not had a pronounced effect on spot market availability right now.
“The Middle East tensions have certainly created some psychological concern in the market, but we have not seen a situation where smelters are unable to secure material,” a fourth source said.
“We have been closely monitoring shipping data and there are still some channels through which cargoes can be delivered,” a fifth source added.
Meanwhile, lingering uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments has made market participants more cautious.
Some sources also reported that concerns over potential external disruptions and excessive price volatility have discouraged buyers from accepting more aggressive offers, thereby limiting liquidity in the spot market to some extent.
The TC guidance set by the CZSPT rose steadily throughout 2025, increasing from $10-30 per tonne in the first quarter to $70-90 in the second quarter, $80-100 in the third quarter and $120-140 in the fourth quarter, before easing to $105-120 per tonne in the first quarter of 2026.
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